Back in early February, Snap Inc (NYSE:SNAP) shocked the world when the company reported much better than expected quarterly numbers. Snap stock, which had been bruised and beaten into the report, soared on the news, from $14 to $20.
Everything seemed to be inflecting upward in the Snapchat kingdom. Sentiment was bullish. Bulls were in control. Jim Cramer likened the stock to the early days of Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ:FB).
But things have gone sour since then. Snap stock has dropped all the way back to its pre-earnings price of $14. Sentiment is back to bearish. Bears are back in control. And now Cramer thinks the stock is going nowhere.
Let me ask the obvious here. What changed?
To be frank, not much. And that makes Snap stock look like a compelling buy into this next earnings report. It will be just as good — if not better — than last quarter’s report. With the stock back down at $14, a strong report could again push Snapchat stock back to $20 and up.
Here’s a deeper look:
Snap Stock’s Risks Are Overblown
Snap stock has tumbled over the past several months and given up all of its post-earnings gains, thanks to two major risks: the app redesign and data usage regulation.
Both of those risk are way overblown.
Yes, people didn’t like the Snapchat app redesign. A petition to change the app back to its original form garnered 1.25 million signatures by early March, while celebrities like Kylie Jenner offered negative feedback on the redesign.
But it is now early April, and that same petition only has 1.26 million signatures. Meanwhile, Jenner still uses Snapchat. I just watched her story.
Clearly, criticizing the Snap redesign was just a fad and nothing more. It draws similarities to when people criticized Facebook’s News Feed back in 2006. But that ended up turning into the foundation for essentially every social media platform in the world.
Meanwhile, some investors are concerned about regulators bringing down the hammer on Facebook, Snapchat and others after a recent highly-publicized data leak at Facebook. But if anything was clear from Zuckerberg’s time in front of Congress, it is that lawmakers have no idea how to regulate these internet companies and the way they use data.
Most likely outcome here? A big fine, and nothing more.
As such, the two big things which have dragged SNAP stock down over the past several months have been exaggerated in the stock price.
Snapchat Is Still Growing in Popularity
While the markets seem to be hyper-focused on Jenner, the rest of the world is using Snapchat more than ever before.
First-time installs of the Snapchat app actually soared following the app redesign. The number of first-time installs of Snapchat rose 57% in the week after the U.S. redesign roll-out versus the prior week.
Meanwhile, Snapchat went from number 7 on the overall U.S. app download chart to number 2 after the redesign roll-out. Then, after Jenner offered negative feedback on the redesign, Snapchat jumped to the number 1 spot.
Also, Piper Jaffray’s Spring 2018 Taking Stock With Teens Survey illustrated that Snapchat is still the most popular and fastest growing app in terms on teenage mind-share. Year-over-year, Snapchat grew mind-share by 6 percentage point to 45%. Instagram grew mind-share by 3 percentage points to 26%.
Overall, all the data supports what we saw in last quarter’s earnings numbers, which is that Snapchat is still growing in popularity. As long as Snapchat continues to grow in popularity, advertisers will flock to the platform, and Snap stock will head higher.
Bottom Line on Snap Stock
I’m not a massive bull on Snap stock. I don’t think this company will overtake Facebook or will ever get to Facebook’s size. But I do think the company is morphing into a go-to ad platform for small-to-medium sized businesses seeking max engagement among the teenage and young adult demographic.
Because of that, I think SNAP is undervalued here and now. Next quarter’s numbers should be pretty good, and those good numbers should catalyze a massive run higher in Snap stock.
As of this writing, Luke Lango was long SNAP and FB.