When UBS reached an $885 million settlement with the Federal Housing Finance Agency for selling it bad loans back in July, it was greeted as good news for the Swiss banking giant. That settlement, however, might not be good news for Bank of America (BAC).
That’s the opinion of Morgan Stanley analysts Betsy Graseck Grasek and Michael Cyprys Cyprus, who note in a report published today that their base case remains unchanged, but their worst-case hit has been pushed higher. They write:
Looks like UBS settled for total estimated lifetime losses on the underlying securities. As a result, some investors have been concerned about BAC’s potential exposure given Moody’s estimated lifetime losses on the securities are $10b. We think that’s too high and model $2b in our base case. Lifetime loss estimates from Moody’s were last published in 2011 and since then prices of super senior and senior tranches of the 2006-2007 securitizations are up an avg 33%. Also, simply applying lifetime loss estimates assumes that BAC is fully responsible for legacy Countrywide claims (an argument in which one judge in this case has already rejected and has dismissed successor liability claims against BAC). Just because UBS seems to have paid full lifetime loss estimates, doesn’t mean others will pay the same.
Top China Companies To Buy For 2014: Ctrip.com International Ltd.(CTRP)
Ctrip.com International, Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides travel services for hotel accommodations, airline tickets, and packaged tours in the People?s Republic of China. It also sells independent leisure travelers bundled package-tour products, which include transportation and accommodation, as well as guided tours covering various domestic and international destinations. In addition, the company offers Internet-related advertising, aviation casualty insurance, and air-ticket delivery services. Further, it sells Property Management System, a hotel information software; travel guidebooks, which provide information for independent travelers; and VIP membership cards that allow cardholders to receive discounts from various restaurants, clubs, and bars. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People?s Republic of China.
- [By Rick Aristotle Munarriz]
Shutterstock/Andrey Burmakin Folks are turning to the Internet more and more in planning business trips and personal getaways — and investors are cashing in on the trend. Shares of Orbitz Worldwide (OWW) soared 18 percent last week after posting better than expected quarterly results. Revenue climbing 4 percent and profitability clocking in at 5 cents a share may not seem very impressive, but analysts were settling for the volatile travel portal to merely break even on flattish revenue growth. Strength in its hotel bookings were more than enough to offset weakness in airline reservations. Orbitz Worldwide’s larger and faster-growing peers priceline.com (PCLN) and Expedia (EXPE) went along for the ride, climbing 7 percent and 4 percent respectively. They both went on to hit new all-time highs. Seeing an industry laggard start to grow profitably again — and Orbitz Worldwide is calling for modest continued growth into 2014 — was enough to get the market behind the popular providers of lodging, air travel, car rental, cruise and vacation package reservations. This isn’t just a one-week phenomenon. Priceline and Expedia shares have soared 174 percent and 171 percent since the end of 2011. Orbitz Worldwide has also more than doubled in that time, and it’s up a whopping 223 percent since the start of 2013. The Ins and Outs of Inn Outings Orbitz Worldwide’s report would have been better if it wasn’t held back by an 11 percent decline in airline ticket sales. Priceline and Expedia are growing their airfare sales, but modestly, compared to their hotel reservations. This isn’t a surprise. Airlines have done a good job of marketing directly to passengers. There are a lot of people on frequent flyer programs, so they often head directly to an air carrier’s website when it’s time to book a trip. Pricing is also pretty competitive between airlines. There may not be a lot of carriers offering the desired route, but they are quick to respond to what rivals are doing. Th
- [By Yiannis Mostrous]
Ctrip.com International (CTRP)
With a 48% market share, Ctrip.com holds the crown as China’s leading online travel agency, offering a one-stop shop for booking hotels, flights, and packaged tours.
Top China Companies To Buy For 2014: CNinsure Inc.(CISG)
CNinsure Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance brokerage and agency services, and insurance claims adjusting services in the People?s Republic of China. The company offers property, casualty, and life insurance products underwritten by domestic and foreign insurance companies operating in China. Its property and casualty insurance products include automobile, individual accident, commercial property, homeowner, cargo, hull, liability, and construction insurance; and life insurance products comprise individual whole life insurance, term life insurance, education annuity, and health insurance, as well as universal insurance and group life insurance. The company also offers insurance claims adjusting services, which include pre-underwriting survey, claims adjusting, disposal of residual value, loading and unloading supervision, and consulting services, as well as damage assessment, survey, authentication, and loss estimation to insurance companies and the i nsured; and value-added services to its customers in conjunction with distributing automobile insurance products. As of April 15, 2010, its distribution and service network consisted of 49 insurance agencies, 3 insurance brokerages, and 4 claims adjusting firms, with 571 sales and service outlets. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, the People?s Republic of China.
- [By Monica Gerson]
CNinsure (NASDAQ: CISG) is projected to post its Q4 earnings at $0.10 per share.
Ferrellgas Partners LP (NYSE: FGP) is expected to report its Q2 earnings at $0.85 per share on revenue of $722.07 million.
- [By John Udovich]
China is set to ease the one child policy, something that could benefit Chinese stocks in general but be especially beneficial to insurance stocks like China Life Insurance Company Ltd (NYSE: LFC) and CNinsure Inc (NASDAQ: CISG) plus health care stocks like Mindray Medical International Ltd (NYSE: MR) and Concord Medical Services Hldg Ltd (NYSE: CCM). First, let’s be clear that China is NOT abolishing the one child policy as the changes will merely allow married couples to have two children if one spouse is an only child plus it will be up to China’s 34 province-level administrations to revise their laws and put the new policy into effect. Moreover, China’s family-planning bureaucracy employs more than 500,000 full-time workers and six million part-time workers all the way down to the village level to collect billions of dollars in fines and these bureaucrats have fought for years against policy changes – meaning they could throw up roadblocks if not placated. With that said, the insurance and health care sectors are two sectors with publicly Chinese stocks that look set to take advantage of the coming changes.
Top China Companies To Buy For 2014: CNOOC Limited(CEO)
CNOOC Limited, through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, production, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and other petroleum products. The company?s oil and natural gas properties are located in offshore China, which include Bohai Bay, western south China Sea, eastern south China Sea, and east China Sea, as well as in Indonesia, Iraq, and other regions in Asia; and Oceania, Africa, North America, and South America. As of December 31, 2010, the company had net proved reserves of approximately 2.99 billion barrels-of-oil equivalent, including approximately 1.92 billion barrels of crude oil and 6,458.3 billion cubic feet of natural gas. It also provides bond issuance services; and has a joint venture with Bridas Energy Holdings. CNOOC Limited was founded in 1982. The company is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong, and is considered a Red Chip company due to its listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. CNOOC Limited is a subsidiary of China National Of fshore Oil Corporation.
- [By MARKETWATCH]
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Hong Kong stocks opened higher on Tuesday, as global investors look ahead to U.S. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s first public remarks later in the day. The Hang Seng Index (HK:HSI) rose 0.7% to 21,722.66. Asia’s largest oil and gas company — PetroChina Co. Ltd (HK:857) (PTR) — climbed 2%, after the company said it has found a large natural-gas reserve in China’s southwestern Sichuan basin, with 308 cubic meters of technically recoverable gas. Cnooc Ltd. (HK:883) (CEO) , China’s largest offshore oil and gas producer, jumped 3.3%, while top refiner China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (HK:386) (SNP) also added 1.6%. Oilfield-equipment shares also benefited from the rally, as China Oilfield Services Ltd. (HK:2883) (CHOLF) gained 1.7%. Huadian Fuxin Energy Corp. Ltd. (HK:816) , the renewable-energy unit of Chinese state-owned power giant China Huadian Corp., jumped 3.2%, after the company said last week it had raised 1.18 billion Hong Kong dollars (about $152 million) through a sale of shares to institutional investors. Waste-management and energy company China Everbright International Ltd. (HK:257) (CHFFF) advanced 2.4%, and China Datang Renewable Power Co. Ltd. (HK:1798) tacked on
- [By Jeff Reeves]
If you want a direct play on China, one of the few individual equities I feel comfortable owning is oil giant CNOOC (CEO). It’s a state-run oil company that is a decent play on the region’s growth, and also a decent bargain right now.
Top China Companies To Buy For 2014: China Automotive Systems Inc.(CAAS)
China Automotive Systems, Inc., through its interests in Sino-foreign joint ventures, engages in the manufacture and sale of power steering systems and other component parts for the automotive industry in the People?s Republic of China. It offers a range of steering system parts for passenger automobiles and commercial vehicles. The company provides 4 separate series, 307 models of power steering, including rack and pinion power steering, integral power steering, electronic power steering and manual steering, steering columns, steering oil pumps, and steering hoses. China Automotive Systems, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Jing Zhou City, the People?s Republic of China.
- [By Richard Schmidt]
China Automotive Systems (CAAS), which makes auto systems and components, reported record-high net sales for the third quarter. The report excited investors, who bid the stock up about 30% for the month.
Top China Companies To Buy For 2014: Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(YZC)
Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited engages in the underground mining, preparation, and sale of coal. It involves in manufacturing, washing, processing, and selling steam coal used in the electricity power sector; and metallurgical coal used with coking coal in the process of pulverized coal injection, as well as operates six coal mines. The company also engages in the provision of railway transportation services; production and sale of coal chemicals, primarily methanol; and generation of electricity and heat. In addition, it involves in the manufacture and sale of mining machinery and engine products; and development of integrated coal technology. Further, the company engages in the transportation via rivers and lakes; sale of construction materials; and trading and processing of mining machinery. It has operations primarily in China, Japan, South Korea, and Australia. The company was founded in 1973 and is based in Zoucheng, the People’s Republic of China. Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited is a subsidiary of Yankuang Group Corporation Limited.
- [By MarketWatch]
Treasurer Joe Hockey said Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. (YZC) no longer needed to meet a Dec. 31 deadline for reducing its stake in Yancoal Australia Ltd. (YAL.AU) below 70%, citing the downturn in global coal prices. Yanzhou, which owns 78% of Yancoal Australia, had made the commitment in 2009 to complete its 3.5 billion Australian dollar (US$3.2 billion) takeover of Felix Resources Ltd.
- [By Belinda Cao]
Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. (YZC), China’s fourth-largest coal producer, lost 3.6 percent last week to $10.33. The company posted its eighth weekly slump, the longest stretch of declines since August 1998. Bank of America Corp. cut the stock to the equivalent of sell from neutral May 3.
- [By Roberto Pedone]
Yanzhou Coal Mining (YZC) engages in the underground coal mining, as well as preparation, processing, sale and railway transportation of coal. This stock closed up 7.6% to $7.31 in Thursday’s trading session.
Thursday’s Range: $7.14-$7.31
52-Week Range: $6.68-$18.57
Thursday’s Volume: 391,000
Three-Month Average Volume: 370,383
From a technical perspective, YZC bounced sharply higher here right off some near-term support at $6.77 with above-average volume. This stock has been downtrending badly for the last six months, with shares plunging from its high of over $14 to its recent low of $6.68. During that move, shares of YZC have been consistently making lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action. That said, shares of YZC have recently formed a double bottom chart pattern at $6.68 to $6.77. This stock now looks ready to reverse that downtrend and possibly trigger a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if YZC manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance levels at $7.76 to $8 with high volume.
Traders should now look for long-biased trades in YZC as long as it’s trending above its recent low of $6.77 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 370,383 shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then YZC will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $9 to $10. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give YZC a chance to tag its next major overhead resistance levels at $10.67 to $11.11
Top China Companies To Buy For 2014: Home Inns & Hotels Management Inc.(HMIN)
Home Inns & Hotels Management Inc. develops, leases, operates, franchises, and manages a chain of economy hotels in the People?s Republic of China. The company operates its hotels under the Home Inn brand name. As of April 28, 2011, it had approximately 800 Home Inns in operation and 1,000 Home Inns sealed in franchise agreements. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People?s Republic of China.
- [By Monica Gerson]
Home Inns & Hotels Management (NASDAQ: HMIN) is estimated to post its Q4 earnings at $2.18 per share on revenue of $1.54 billion.
Qiwi plc (NASDAQ: QIWI) is expected to report its Q4 earnings at $0.28 per share on revenue of $50.00 million.
- [By Belinda Cao]
The Bloomberg China-US Equity Index (CH55BN) of the most-traded Chinese companies in the U.S. slumped 3.4 percent last week to a seven-month low of 89.04. The gauge traded at 13.5 times estimated earnings, 3.6 percent below the S&P’s valuation, data compiled by Bloomberg show. China Southern Airlines Co. (ZNH) and China Eastern Airlines Corp. (CEA) lost more than 6 percent April 5, while Home Inns & Hotels Management Inc. (HMIN) tumbled 16 percent in the week.
- [By Jim Jubak]
The New York traded ADRs of China’s Home Inns and Hotels Management (HMIN) have climbed 15.5% from September 24 to the close on October 11.
Part of the reason is a October 10 recommendation from Goldman Sachs that added the ADRs to its top pick list. And part of the reason is a huge surge in domestic travel during China’s recently concluded National Day holiday week. (Home Inns and Hotels Management is a member of my Jubak’s Picks portfolio.)
Top China Companies To Buy For 2014: New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc.(EDU)
New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. provides private educational services primarily in the People?s Republic of China. It offers a range of educational programs, services, and products consisting primarily of English and other foreign language training; test preparation courses for admissions and assessment tests; primary and secondary school education; development and distribution of educational content; software and other technology; and online education. The company?s language training courses primarily consist of various types of English language training courses, and other foreign languages, including German, Japanese, French, Korean, and Spanish. It offers test preparation courses for language and entrance exams used by educational institutions in the United States, the People?s Republic of China, and commonwealth countries. The company also operates primary and secondary schools in Yangzhou. In addition, New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. deve lops and edits content for educational materials for language training and test preparation, such as books, software, CD-ROMs, magazines, and other periodicals. It distributes these materials through various distribution channels consisting of own classrooms and bookstores, as well as third-party distributors. Further, the company offers various online education programs on its Web site, koolearn.com. Additionally, it provides consulting services to help students through the application and admission process for overseas educational institutions, as well as post-secondary educational programs to help students seek career opportunities; and operates two pre-schools. The company offers educational services under the ?New Oriental? brand name. As of May 31, 2010, it offered education programs, services, and products through a network of 48 schools, 319 learning centers, and 25 bookstores. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People?s Republic of China.
- [By Mark Skousen]
Millions of Chinese are learning English, the international language of commerce, and preparing for exams. Those are the two principal occupations of New Oriental Education & Technology Group (EDU).
- [By Belinda Cao]
New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (EDU), China’s largest private educational company, fell 11 percent last week to a one-month low of $16.07. Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Ella Ji said April 2 that students may avoid large gatherings because of the flu, impacting New Oriental.