That’s how Citigroup’s Paul Lejuez and team described Tiffany’s (TIF) fourth-quarter earnings and 2016 guidance in a note this morning:
Adj EPS of $1.46 vs cons and our $1.40. Comps -5% worldwide (constant Fx, in line with Holiday results), with the Americas -8% (in line with Holiday), Europe -3% (Holiday -2%), Japan +10% (in line with Holiday), and Asia-Pac -8% (Holiday -9%). Adj op margin +85bps (cons flat) to 24.6%, with GM +220bps (vs cons +60bps) due to favorable product input costs and price increases. and 135bps of SG&A deleverage (ex items; cons 60 bps of deleverage), with dollars -2% (benefiting from Fx and lower marketing and variable labor costs).
F16 EPS flat to -MSDs (implying ~$3.64-$3.83) vs guidance of “minimal sales and earnings growth” provided with Holiday sales, cons $3.86 and our $3.76E, based on flat sales (+LSDs in cc), and lower op margin (with stronger GM offset by SG&A deleverage). Guidance is based on weak sales trends to-date in most regions, followed by an expected improvement in 2H. 1Q EPS guidance -15-20%, implying $0.65-$0.69 (vs cons $0.76 and our $0.69E). 2Q EPS guidance -5-10%, implying $0.78-$0.82 (vs cons $0.81 and our $0.75). 2H expected to return to EPS growth. F16 FCF guidance of at least $400M…
Top 5 Specialty Retail Companies To Own In Right Now: eHealth Inc.(EHTH)
eHealth, Inc. offers Internet-based insurance agency services for individuals, families, and small businesses in the United States. The company also offers technology licensing and Internet advertising services. Its ecommerce platforms organize and present health insurance information in various formats, as well as enables individuals, families, and small businesses to research, analyze, compare, and purchase various health insurance plans. The company offers various medical health insurance coverage plans, such as preferred provider organization, health maintenance organization and indemnity plans, Medicare plans, short-term medical insurance, student health insurance, and health savings account eligible health insurance plans, as well as ancillary plans, such as dental, vision, and life insurance. Its customers access its ecommerce platforms through its Websites, including eHealth.com, eHealthInsurance.com, eHealthMedicare.com, and PlanPrescriber.com, as well as through a network of marketing partners. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.
- [By Lisa Levin]
eHealth, Inc. (NASDAQ: EHTH) was down, falling around 32 percent to $9.53. eHealth reported a Q2 net loss of $0.5 million, versus a year-ago net income of $5.8 million. The company also reported weak quarterly revenue.
Top 5 Specialty Retail Companies To Own In Right Now: Newfield Exploration Company(NFX)
Newfield Exploration Company, an independent energy company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. Its principal areas of operation include the Anadarko and Arkoma basins of Oklahoma, the Williston Basin of North Dakota, the Uinta Basin of Utah, and the Maverick and Gulf Coast basins of Texas. The company also holds offshore oil developments in China. As of December 31, 2015, it had proved reserves of approximately 509 million barrels of oil equivalent. The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas.
- [By Ben Levisohn]
The large cap E&Ps we cover raised ~ $6.5 billion of equity in 2015 and are likely to consider additional issuance in 2016. Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) raised $1.3 billion on January 5th and Hess Corp. (HES) raised $1.5 billion of equity/equity-linked earlier this month. We think highly leveraged companies such as Devon Energy,Encana andRange Resources (RRC) and companies with a large deficit (before asset sales), such asAnadarko Petroleum and Devon Energy, are most likely to consider raising equity. Additionally, we believe companies such as WPX Energy (WPX), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Marathon Oil, Continental Resources (CLR),Noble Energy and Newfield Exploration (NFX) could issue equity while several levered companies may be unwilling or unable to access equity markets. We do not think Apache, Canadian Natural Resource, EOG Resources (EOG), Occidental Petroleum orPioneer Natural Resources are likely to issue equity this year.
- [By Ben Levisohn]
Lear also sees strong “upside potential” forConcho Resources (CXO), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) and Newfield Exploration (NFX) as well performance improves in the Permian/STACK, and also writes positively on Devon Energy (DVN).
Top 10 Rising Companies To Own For 2016: Royal Dutch Shell PLC(RDS.A)
Royal Dutch Shell plc (shell), incorporated on February 5, 2002, is an independent oil and gas company. The Company explores for crude oil and natural gas across the world, both in conventional fields and from sources, such as tight rock, shale and coal formations. The Company is engaged in the principal aspects of the oil and gas industry in approximately 70 countries. The Company operates in three segments: Upstream, Downstream and Corporate. Its Upstream segment focuses on exploration for new crude oil and natural gas reserves and on developing new projects. In Downstream, the Company focuses on turning crude oil into a range of refined products, which are moved and marketed around the world for domestic, industrial and transport use. The Company sells various products, which include gasoline, diesel, heating oil, aviation fuel, marine fuel, liquefied natural gas (LNG) for transport, lubricants, bitumen and sulfur. It also produces and sells ethanol from sugar cane in B razil.
The Company’s Upstream segment combines the operating segments Upstream International and Upstream Americas. The Company extracts bitumen from mined oil sands, which the Company converts into synthetic crude oil. The Company liquefies natural gas by cooling it and transports LNG to customers around the world. It also converts natural gas to liquids (GTL) to provide fuels and other products, and it markets and trades crude oil and natural gas (including LNG) in support of its Upstream businesses. Shell subsidiaries, joint ventures and associates are involved in all aspects of upstream activities, including matters, such as land tenure, entitlement to produced hydrocarbons, production rates, royalties, pricing, environmental protection, social impact, exports, taxes and foreign exchange. The conditions of the leases, licenses and contracts under, which oil and gas interests are held vary from country to country.
The Compan y’s Upstream International business manages Shell’s Upstream! activities outside the Americas. The Company explores for and extracts crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids, transports oil and gas, and operates the upstream and midstream infrastructure necessary to deliver oil and gas to market. Upstream International also manages the LNG and GTL businesses outside the Americas, and markets and trades natural gas, including LNG, outside the Americas. It manages its operations primarily by line of business, with this structure overlaying country organizations The Company’s Upstream Americas business manages Shell’s Upstream activities in North and South America. Upstream Americas also extracts bitumen from oil sands that is converted into synthetic crude oil. It manages the LNG business in the Americas, including assets in Peru and Trinidad and Tobago. It also markets and trades natural gas in the Americas. In addition, it manages the United States wind business.
The Company’s Downstream bus iness manages Shell’s oil products activities, consisting refining, trading and supply, pipelines and marketing, and chemicals activities. In addition, the Company produces and sells petrochemicals for industrial use across the world. Its marketing activities include retail, lubricants, business-to-business (B2B) and alternative energies. In trading and supply, the Company trades crude oil, oil products and petrochemicals, to optimize feedstock for refining and chemicals, to supply its marketing businesses and third parties. The Company has interests in over 20 refineries across the world with the capacity to process a total of approximately 3.1 million barrels of crude oil per day. Trading and supply trades in physical and financial contracts, lease storage and transportation capacities, and manages shipping and wholesale commercial fuel activities globally. Across approximately 100 countries, the Company produces, markets or sells lubricants for passenger cars, motorcycles , trucks and coaches, and for industrial machinery in the ma! nufacturi! ng, mining, power generation, agriculture and construction sectors.
The Company has a global lubricants supply chain with a network of over eight base oil manufacturing plants, 40 lubricant blending plants, 10 grease plants and four gas-to-liquids base oil storage hubs. Through its marine activities, the Company primarily provides lubricants along with fuels and related technical services, to the shipping and maritime sectors. Its B2B activities encompass the sale of fuels and specialty products and services to a range of commercial customers. Its plants produce a range of base chemicals, including ethylene, propylene and aromatics, as well as intermediate chemicals, such as styrene monomer, propylene oxide, solvents, detergent alcohols, ethylene oxide and ethylene glycol. It has capacity to produce approximately six million tons of ethylene a year.
- [By Robert Rapier]
But it’s far too early to tell if TAT will have commercial success, and it faces significant competitors in the region, such as Shell (NYSE: RDS.A). Given all the risk factors, this is not one that I would feel comfortable owning at this time, but if it were to significantly increase production in Turkey as Peyto did in Canada, I might reconsider.
Top 5 Specialty Retail Companies To Own In Right Now: Pinnacle Entertainment Inc.(PNK)
Pinnacle Entertainment, Inc. owns, develops, and operates casinos, and related hospitality and entertainment facilities in the United States. It operates casinos, such as L’Auberge du Lac in Lake Charles, Louisiana; River City Casino and Lumiere Place in St. Louis, Missouri; Boomtown New Orleans in New Orleans, Louisiana; Belterra Casino Resort in Vevay, Indiana; Boomtown Bossier City in Bossier City, Louisiana; and Boomtown Reno in Reno, Nevada. The company also operates River Downs racetrack in southeast Cincinnati, Ohio. As of May 26, 2011, it operated seven casinos and one racetrack. The company was formerly known as Hollywood Park, Inc. and changed its name to Pinnacle Entertainment, Inc. in February 2000. Pinnacle Entertainment, Inc. was founded in 1935 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.
- [By Ben Levisohn]
Pinnacle Entertainment (PNK) has gained 56% this year; Las Vegas Sands (LVS) has climbed 38%. And Deutsche Bank has nice things to say about both today.
First Pinnacle. Deutsche Bank’s Carlo Santarelli ponders the stock’s big move and comes away still seeing value in its shares. He writes:
When we upgraded PNK in April, our thesis centered on the FCF strength of the combined entities [Pinnacle completed its acquisition of Ameristar Casinos on Aug. 14], a handful of favorable catalysts, easing regional gaming comps, & an inexpensive relative valuation. Given the shares’ sizeable move since then, we believe it is worth revisiting the investment case. Post the announcement of several asset sales and the closing of the transaction, we are adjusting our estimates, raising our PT to $30 from $24, and maintaining our bullish view at current levels given what we still believe to be an attractive free cash flow valuation, meaningful potential synergy realization beyond the $40 mm of announced benefits, and a free option on a lagging regional recovery.
Santarelli also revisited Las Vegas Sands and there too, he likes what he sees. He writes:
With…LVS at [a share price level] that have been challenging to break from over the last year plus, we believe this time is different and hence we see continued upward momentum…In the case of LVS, we see; 1) meaningful mass market strength continuing through year end, setting the stage for upward company and market estimate revisions for 2014, 2) continued cash flow appreciation and capital returns serving as downside protection and positive catalysts, and 3) continued shared gains, largely driven by table optimization and mass market strength, driving both estimates and sentiment.
He also likes Wynn Resorts (WYNN), despite its 34% gain.Santarelli writes:
As for WYNN, we believe near-term estimates continue to take a back seat to capital return
Top 5 Specialty Retail Companies To Own In Right Now: Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. (The)(IPG)
The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. provides advertising and marketing services worldwide. It operates through two segments, Integrated Agency Networks and Constituency Management Group. The company offers consumer advertising, digital marketing, communications planning and media buying, public relations, and specialized communications disciplines. It also provides various diversified services, including public relations, meeting and event production, sports and entertainment marketing, corporate and brand identity, and strategic marketing consulting. The companys brands comprise McCann, MullenLowe, IPG Mediabrands, Carmichael Lynch, Deutsch, Hill Holliday, and The Martin Agency, as well as Foote, Cone & Belding. The company was formerly known as McCann-Erickson Incorporated and changed its name to The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. in January 1961. The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
- [By Michael Flannelly]
Jefferies analysts noted that Interpublic Group of Companies Inc (IPG) offers some upside, but certain factors will continue to weigh down the stock. As such, the analysts upgraded the marketing and advertising company on Wednesday, but only with a tepid rating.
The analysts upgraded IPG from “Underperform” to “Hold” and now see shares reaching $17.20, up from the previous target of $11. This new price target suggests a slight upside to the stock’s Tuesday closing price of $16.92.
Jefferies analyst David Reynolds commented, “There’s a lot to be said for IPG, robust earnings growth profile, plays well into a ‘growth’ ad spend market and perhaps it remains the key beneficiary of all things POG. Yet, issues around North American profitability and developing economy scale continue to weigh. Richly valued and thus only c.2% upside to the ‘old normal’ and demonstrably bullish 16.7x forward earnings, we think warrants a HOLD. We set our new PT at US$17.20, 16.7x FY14 earnings.”
Interpublic Group shares were inactive during pre-market trading on Wednesday. The stock is up 53.54% year-to-date.