Strategas Research Partners’ Jason DeSena Trennert pushes back against critics of TINA–”there is no alternative” to stocks:
Jason Alden/Bloomberg News
About a year ago, I received this little chestnut from a friend after an appearance on CNBC. The anchors of the show were ccd as well.
T.I.N.A. is B.S. Yesterday’s market schmeissing brought on more arguments from the business media that “there is no alternative” to stocks (the “T.I.N.A.” hypothesis), and that investors should buy on the recent market dip. Well, I think T.I.N.A. is B.S., as cash is an asset class and performs the job of insulating one’s portfolio from wild gyrations and drawdowns.
A year later and my personal critic is still at it, although less directly. One of his recent blog posts was passed along to me by a friend and read thusly:
Top 5 Specialty Retail Companies For 2016: Best Buy Co., Inc.(BBY)
Best Buy Co., Inc. operates as a retailer of technology products, services, and solutions in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The company operates through two reportable segments, Domestic and International. Its stores provide consumer electronics, such as home theater, home automation, digital imaging, health and fitness, and portable audio products; computing and mobile phones, including computing and peripherals, networking, tablets, smart watches, and e-readers, as well as mobile phones comprising related mobile network carrier commissions; and entertainment products, such as gaming hardware and software, movie, music, technology toy, and other software products. The companys stores also offer appliances, which include refrigeration and laundry appliances, dishwashers, ovens, coffee makers, blenders, etc.; and other products comprising snacks, beverages, and other sundry items. In addition, it provides services, su ch as consultation, design, delivery, installation, set-up, protection plan, repair, technical support, and educational services. The company offers its products through stores and Websites under the Best Buy, bestbuy.com, Best Buy Mobile, Best Buy Direct, Best Buy Express, Geek Squad, Magnolia Home Theater, Pacific Kitchen and Home, bestbuy.com.ca, bestbuy.com.mx, and Geek Squad brand names, as well as through call centers. As of January 30, 2016, it had approximately 1,200 large-format and 400 small-format stores. The company was formerly known as Sound of Music, Inc. Best Buy Co., Inc. was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in Richfield, Minnesota.
- [By WWW.DAILYFINANCE.COM]
Scott Eells/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesHubert Joly, president and chief executive officer of Best Buy Co. NEW YORK — Hubert Joly, CEO of Best Buy, sold some stock in order to help pay for his divorce settlement. In a regulatory filing, Joly said he exercised some 350,467 stock options at $18.02 a share, for a total of about $6.3 million. He then sold those shares, plus other holdings in the consumer electronics chain, for a total of 451,153 shares for $16.7 million. That means he made about $10.4 million from the sale. Best Buy Co. (BBY) said in a statement that Joly sold the stock “due to circumstances related to his marital dissolution.” The chain said that he still owns stock that is substantially more than the 140,000 share ownership target that is part of its executive stock ownership guidelines. Last month, Best Buy reported second-quarter results that topped analyst estimates as it slashed costs and worked to make its website more competitive. The retailer has been shuttering underperforming stores and revamping others to offset tough competition from discounters and online retailers. Under Joly, who took the helm of the company a year ago, Best Buy has instituted a price-matching policy, opened more in-store areas for manufacturers such as Apple (AAPL) and Samsung, and invested more to train employees. Shares of Best Buy added 5 cents to $37.97 in afternoon trading. Earlier in the session, the stock hit $38, its highest point since December 2010. The stock has more than tripled since the start of the year.
Forecast store closings: 200 to 250 Number of U.S. stores:1,056 One-year stock performance: -36.8% The holiday season was rough for Best Buy (BBY). Same-store sales declined by 1.4% year-over-year, with international stores posting a 6.4% decline while U.S. same-store sales were flat. Company-wide, the electronics retailer reported that holiday revenue had declined to $12.8 billion from $12.9 billion the year before. In the most r
- [By Lee Jackson]
Best Buy Co. (NYSE: BBY) was an old time big-box retailer thought to be left for dead. The founder was trying to make waves, and electronics stores as a whole, like Circuit City, were in the Wall Street graveyard. Best Buy revamped its inventory and sales focus, opened up the online sales effort and has totally blown awaythe short sellers. The Thomson/First Call estimate for the stock is $39, and investors are paid a 1.8% dividend.
Top 5 Specialty Retail Companies For 2016: Transcananda Pipelines Ltd.(TRP)
Transcanada Corporation operates as an energy infrastructure company in North America. The company operates in three segments: Natural Gas Pipelines, Oil Pipelines, and Energy. The Natural Gas Pipelines segment develops and operates energy infrastructure, including natural gas pipelines and regulated gas storage facilities. Its network of natural gas pipelines extends approximately 60,000 km tapping into gas supply basins in North America. The Oil Pipelines segment operates Keystone crude oil pipeline system, which includes completed 3,467 km Wood River/Patoka and Cushing Extension phases, and the proposed 2,673 km U.S. Gulf Coast Expansion. The Energy segment engages in the acquisition, development, construction, ownership, and operation of electrical power generation plants; the purchase and marketing of electricity; the provision of electricity account services to energy and industrial customers; and the development, construction, ownership, and operation of non-regulat ed natural gas storage in Alberta. The company was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
- [By Chad Tracy]
The most obvious is TransCanada (NYSE: TRP), the company that has submitted the proposal for the expansion.
TransCanada's cash flow is derived from natural gas (62%), oil/liquids (16%), and energy (22%), which includes natural gas storage.
Top Oil Service Companies To Watch For 2016: Safeway Inc.(SWY)
Safeway Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a food and drug retailer in North America. The company operates stores that provide an array of grocery items, food, and general merchandise, as well as features specialty departments, such as bakery, delicatessen, floral, and pharmacy, as well as coffee shops and fuel centers. It also offers SELECT line of products that include baked goods, sparkling ciders and lemonades, salsas, whole bean coffees, frozen pizzas and entrees, and fresh and dry pastas and sauces, as well as an array of ice creams, hors d’oeuvres, and desserts; O ORGANICS line, which comprises milk, chicken, salads, juices, and entrees; Lucerne line of dairy products; Eating Right line of better-for-you products; Bright Green line of home care products; Total Pet Care line of pet foods and pet care products; and Value Red line of value-priced paper goods. As of December 31, 2009, Safeway operated approximately 1,725 stores in California, Oregon, Wash ington, Alaska, Colorado, Arizona, Texas, the Chicago metropolitan area, and the Mid-Atlantic region, as well as British Columbia, Alberta and Manitoba/Saskatchewan. In addition, the company owns and operates GroceryWorks.com Operating Company, LLC, an online grocery channel, doing business under the names Safeway.com, Vons.com, and Genuardis.com; and Blackhawk Network Holdings, Inc., which provides third-party gift cards, prepaid cards, telecom cards, and sports and entertainment cards to North American retailers for sale to retail customers. Additionally, it engages in gift card businesses in the United Kingdom, France, Mexico, and Australia. Further, the company, through a 49% ownership interest in Casa Ley, S.A. de C.V. operates 156 food and general merchandise stores in Western Mexico. The company was formerly known as Safeway Stores, Incorporated and changed its name to Safeway Inc. in February 1990. Safeway was founded in 1915 and is based in Pleasanton, California. Advisors’ Opinion:
- [By Shauna O’Brien]
Shares of Safeway Inc. (SWY) surged on Tuesday morning after announcing that it has adopted a shareholder rights plan to prevent large accumulations of its stock.
The company has adopted a “poison pill” plan as an anti-takeover precaution after becoming aware of a large accumulation of its common stock.
Safeway did not indentify the investor that is accumulating the stock, but noted that this plan will help maintain “fair and equal treatment” to all shareholders.
The plan will dilute the value of the stock by creating more shares, making it difficult for a single investor to acquire large amounts of stock. Shareholders of the company’s common stock as of September 30 will receive one preferred stock purchase right for every share of common stock that they own.
Safeway shares were up $2.38, or 8.49%, during Tuesday morning trading. The stock is up 68% YTD.
Top 5 Specialty Retail Companies For 2016: Range Resources Corporation(RRC)
Range Resources Corporation, an independent natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of natural gas properties primarily in the Appalachian and southwestern regions of the United States. The company?s Appalachian region drilling and producing activities include tight-gas, shale, coal bed methane, and conventional natural gas and oil production in Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, and West Virginia. It owns 4,969 net producing wells, approximately 2,750 miles of gas gathering lines, and approximately 1.8 million gross acres under lease. The company?s Southwestern drilling and producing activities cover the Barnett Shale of North Texas, the Permian Basin of West Texas and eastern New Mexico, the East Texas Basin, the Texas Panhandle, and the Anadarko Basin of Western Oklahoma. It owns 1,954 net producing wells, as well as approximately 886,000 gross acres under lease. As of December 31, 2010, Range Resources Corporation had had 4.4 Tcfe of pr oved reserves. It sells gas to utilities, marketing companies, and industrial users. The company was formerly known as Lomak Petroleum, Inc. and changed its name to Range Resources Corporation in 1998. Range Resources Corporation was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.
- [By Dave Forest]
Consider Range Resources (NYSE: RRC). The company now trades at an enterprise value of $15.5 billion. And yet the after-tax value of its reserves at year-end 2012 was just $3.2 billion.
Top 5 Specialty Retail Companies For 2016: Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc.(POT)
Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. (PCS), incorporated on May 15, 2002, is a fertilizer producer producing various primary crop nutrients, such as potash, nitrogen and phosphate. The Company operates through three segments: potash, nitrogen and phosphate. The Company owns and operates approximately five potash operations in Saskatchewan and one in New Brunswick. Its nitrogen operations involve the production of nitrogen fertilizers and nitrogen feed and industrial products, including ammonia, urea, nitrogen solutions, ammonium nitrate and nitric acid. It has nitrogen facilities in Georgia, Louisiana, Ohio and Trinidad. The Company’s phosphate operations include the manufacture and sale of solid and liquid phosphate fertilizers, phosphate feed and industrial acid, which is used in food products and industrial processes. It has phosphate mines and mineral processing plant complexes in Florida and North Carolina. The Company has approximately four phosphate feed plants i n the United States and produce phosphoric acid at its Geismar, Louisiana facility.
The Company’s potash operations include the mining and processing of potash, which is used as fertilizer. The potash ore is contained in a rock salt formation known as the Prairie Evaporite, which lies approximately 1,000 meters below the surface. The evaporite deposits, which are bounded by limestone formations, contain potash beds of 2.4 to 5.1 meters of thickness. The potash deposits that occur in the Province are the Esterhazy, Belle Plaine and Patience Lake Members. The Patience Lake Member is mined at the Lanigan, Allan, Patience Lake and Cory mines, and the Esterhazy Member is mined at the Rocanville mine. The Company produces potash using both conventional and solution mining methods. The Company’s conventional potash operations mine approximately 28.2 million tons of ore at an average mineral grade of over 23.7% potassium oxide (K2O). Its potash produ ction from its operations consists of over 9.1 million tons ! of potash (KCl or finished product) with an average grade of 61.0% K2O. In addition to potash production, its New Brunswick operations also produces over 0.9 million tons of sodium chloride (salt).
The Company’s nitrogen operations include the production of nitrogen fertilizers and nitrogen chemicals. Its products are used for agricultural, industrial and animal nutrition purposes. The Company has over four nitrogen production facilities, of which over three are located in the United States and one is located in Trinidad. The Company’s plant locations are Augusta, GA, which produces ammonia, urea, nitric acid, ammonium nitrate and nitrogen solutions; Geismar, LA, which produces ammonia, nitric acid and nitrogen solutions; Lima, OH, which produces ammonia, urea, nitric acid and nitrogen solutions, and Point Lisas, Trinidad, which produces Ammonia and urea. The ammonia is used to produce a line of upgraded nitrogen products, including urea, n itrogen solutions, ammonium nitrate and nitric acid. Ammonia, urea and nitrogen solutions are sold as fertilizers to agricultural customers and to industrial customers for various applications. Nitric acid and ammonium nitrate are sold to industrial customers for various applications. Urea is also sold for feed applications.
The Company mines phosphate ore and manufactures phosphoric acid, solid and liquid fertilizers, animal feed supplements, purified phosphoric acid, which is used in food products and industrial processes, hydrofluosilicic acid (HFSA) and silicon tetrafluoride (STF). The Company conducts its phosphate operations primarily at over two facilities, including a 75,212-acre facility near Aurora, North Carolina and a 99,588-acre facility near White Springs in northern Florida. The Aurora facility includes approximately six million ton per-year mining operation, over three sulfuric acid plants, approximately four phosphoric aci d plants, over four purified acid plants, a liquid fertilize! r plant, ! approximately four superphosphoric acid (SPA) plants, a deflourinated merchange grade acid plant (DFMGA), a low magnesium SPA plant (LOMAG), a defluorinated phosphate (DFP) or animal feed plant, approximately two granulation plants capable of producing diammonium phosphate (DAP) or monoammonium phosphate (MAP), and over four STF plants.
The White Springs facility includes a mine and the Swift Creek chemical complex. The remaining Swift Creek chemical complex consists of over two sulfuric acid plants, one phosphoric acid plant, and one SPA plant. At its Geismar, Louisiana facility, the Company manufactures phosphoric acid. The Geismar facility has a phosphoric acid plant and a liquid fertilizer plant. The Company extracts phosphate ore using surface mining techniques. Its other phosphate properties include animal feed plants in Marseilles, Illinois; Joplin, Missouri; Weeping Water, Nebraska; a technical and food grade phosphate plant in Cincinnati, Ohio, and a te rminal facility at Morehead City, North Carolina. It produces MGA at Aurora, White Springs and Geismar facilities.
The Company competes with The Mosaic Company, Agrium Inc., Intrepid Potash Inc., ICL, SQM, Belaruskali, Uralkali, K+S Group, Agrium Inc., CF Industries Holdings, Inc., Koch Industries, Inc., J.R. Simplot Company, OCP S.A. and Innophos Holdings, Inc.
- [By Gavin Graham, President, Graham Investment Strategy, Ltd.]
Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (POT) has seen its share price fall by half over the last three years and almost 20% in the last month. That’s due to the decrease in the price of potash and the collapse of the Belarus Potash joint venture.
- [By Chad Fraser]
The agriculture ETF is heavily weighted toward the U.S., with 45.8% of its assets there, but it is geographically diverse, with exposure to countries such as Canada (9.9%), Switzerland (8.5%), Japan (6.7%) and Singapore (5.1%).
Potash Cartel Breakup Has Weighed on This Agriculture ETF
The ETF’s unit price declined in the first half of 2013, partly because of the breakup of the Belarusian Potash Company (BPC), through which Russia’s Uralkali, the world’s No. 1 potash producer, and Belaruskali of Belarus distribute their potash. The market is dominated by BPC and Canpotex, owned by Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT), Mosaic and Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU).
Together, the two cartels control 70% of global potash exports, so the breakup of BPC will result in a more fractured market, which seems likely to push potash prices lower. Shares of major potash producers fell sharply on the news, as did Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF due to its potash stock holdings, which include Agrium, Potash Corp. and Mosaic.