Deutsche Bank’s John Inch and Karen Lau argue that Honeywell International (HON) is “achieving Asian critical mass.” They explain:
After over a decade of aggressive and earnest Asian investment including seed planting and cultivation of local Asian talent, we believe Honeywell has emerged from behind other western countries in China and the rest of Asia to leading position across its served markets. Honeywell claims (and we believe it is true) that it has become the Chinese/Asian competitor that local rivals look to emulate. Honeywells profit margins in China are above the corporate averages across the companys businesses. Meanwhile, we learned that Honeywell is sometimes even the local price leader, such as for scanning and mobility products.
Within China, we estimate Honeywells sales to be closing in on $2.8bn (6-7% of company total), roughly flat last year (dragged last year by PMTs down results due to the collapse in oil prices and associated project deferral), up low to mid single-digits this year (ACS is running up double-digits YTD) and up double-digits next year (and beyond). As part of the $2.8bn, the company reportedly has realized ~$750mm in sales that it classifies as East for East (E4E) developed and produced almost entirely in local markets for local customers (i.e., ACS and turbo with some PMT product applications). We believe the $750mm to be a laudable achievement particularly given the rapid pace of change of Chinas economy over the past decade coupled with aggressive local competition. Honeywell retains #1/#2 positions across a swath of the markets it serves.
Top 5 Oil Companies To Buy For 2016: Whiting Petroleum Corporation(WLL)
Whiting Petroleum Corporation engages in the acquisition, development, exploitation, exploration, and production of oil and gas primarily in the Permian Basin, Rocky Mountains, Mid-Continent, Gulf Coast, and Michigan regions of the United States. As of December 31, 2010, its estimated proved reserves were 304.9 million barrels equivalent of oil; and had interests in 9,698 gross productive wells covering approximately 1,115,000 gross developed acres. The company sells its oil and gas to end users, marketers, and other purchasers. Whiting Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1983 and is Denver, Colorado.
- [By Ben Levisohn]
Credit Suisse analystsMark Lear and team explain why they upgradedWhiting Petroleum (WLL) to Outperform from Neutral:
We upgradeWhiting Petroleum to Outperform and raise our target price to $14 per share (from $13/sh) given Whiting Petroleums significant beta to a higher mark to market 2Q16 WTI price. Our target price is further aided by a recent debt exchange whereby the company was able to remove $1.065bn of debt principal through the use of mandatory convertibles. Our $14/sh target price…is based on an assumption of max dilution, with actual shares issued on the convertible debt depending on how Whiting Petroleums stock trades over the next few weeks. This exchange came on the heels of a smaller 1Q16 announcement which removes ~$477mm of debt from the balance sheet.
In the most recent exchange, the minimum mandatory conversion price has a lower bound at $8.75 per share, which when coupled with macro fears appears to have unjustly hurt and kept the stock range-bound since the announcement, asWhiting Petroleum is down ~34% over the past month relative to the XOP up ~2%. However, an extensive inventory in the core of the Williston coupled with improving type curves from larger completions which are increasing validated in state production data provide compelling near term catalysts as we expect drilling activity to accelerate in 2017 at the latest. Meanwhile, asset sales remain another key catalyst with remaining assets on the block including North Ward Estes and the monetization of Whiting Petroleums Williston Basin gas plants.
Lear also sees strong “upside potential” forConcho Resources (CXO), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) and Newfield Exploration (NFX) as well performance improves in the Permian/STACK, and also writes positively on Devon Energy (DVN).
Not that the upgrade is doing much good today. Shares ofWhiting Petroleum have dropped 1.4% to $8.68 at 1:59 a.m. today, wh
- [By Ben Levisohn]
Productivity analysis favors stock picking framework of shale scale + the next rung down. We continue to maintain our Buy ratings on several shale productivity winners such asEOG Resources (CL),Diamondback Energy (CL),PDC Energy (CL),Pioneer Natural Resources and RSP Permian, while increased visibility in a path towards oil price recovery has heightened our confidence in next rung down stocks such as Hess (HES) (CL), Anadarko Petroleum (APC), Encana (ECA), Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO) and Whiting Petroleum (WLL). While our well results analysis supports our thesis on these shale scale winners, we note that a number of these higher beta stocks also screened particularly well, further bolstering our view on these equities.
- [By Andrew Efimoff]
WTI crude oil plunged 3.11 percent on Friday to $48.99 a barrel. Below are the biggest energy losers for the day:
California Resources Corporation (NYSE: CRC): -19.22% Dynamic Materials (NASDAQ: BOOM): -12.39% Clayton Williams Energy (NYSE: CWEI): -11.45% Dynergy (NYSE: DYN): -11.91% EP Energy Corporation (NYSE: EPE): -11.20% Mexco Energy (NYSE: MXC) -10.90% Whiting Petroleum (NYSE: WLL) -10.79% Southwestern Energy Company (NYSE: SWN) -10.79% SM Energy Company (NYSE: SM) -10.38% Real Goods Solar (NASDAQ: RGSE) -10.34%
Posted-In: Commodities After-Hours Center Markets Movers
- [By Ben Levisohn]
The $50/Bbl Question Is Answered In our June 2nd note entitled, Rethinking Risk/Reward on High Beta E&Ps, we highlighted that $50/Bbl is a critical level as it is around which many E&Ps have indicated they would begin either utilizing drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells and/or increasing activity. Thus, with the NYMEX strip exceeding ~$50/Bbl in H216 and 2017, the question becomes, What will E&Ps do next? In our note we distinguished which oilier SMID Caps could organically accelerate at current NYMEX strip prices without further leveraging the balance sheet and which would still require higher oil prices. We ranked WPX third, behindOasis Petroleum (OAS) and Whiting Petroleum (WLL) in terms of its ability to accelerate through the drill-bit while keeping the balance sheet intact. For WPX we concluded that without increasing activity beyond our base case assumptions or higher oil prices, leverage would increase by 0.8x in 2017. However with accelerated activity and corresponding higher outspend (via more Williston DUCs and an addtl Permian rig), we forecast WPX could further grow production next year and keep leverage flattish at ~3.5x Net Debt/EBITDAX. We think todays announcements confirm our thesis, as WPX increased 2016 Williston activity and issued equity to facilitate this addtl spend plus potential activity acceleration in 2017/2018 without adding more debt.
Top 5 Oil Companies To Buy For 2016: Halliburton Company(HAL)
Halliburton Company provides various products and services to the energy industry for the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas worldwide. It operates in two segments, Completion and Production, and Drilling and Evaluation. The Completion and Production segment offers production enhancement services, completion tools and services, cementing services, and Boots & Coots. Its production enhancement services include stimulation and sand control services; completion tools and services comprise subsurface safety valves and flow control equipment, surface safety systems, packers and specialty completion equipment, intelligent completion systems, expandable liner hanger systems, sand control systems, well servicing tools, and reservoir performance services; cementing services consist of bonding the well and well casing, while isolating fluid zones and maximizing wellbore stability, and casing equipment; and Boots & Coots include well intervention services , pressure control, equipment rental tools and services, and pipeline and process services. The Drilling and Evaluation segment provides field and reservoir modeling, drilling, evaluation, and wellbore placement solutions that enable customers to model, measure, and optimize their well construction activities. Its services comprise fluid services, drilling services, drill bits, wireline and perforating services, testing and subsea services, software and asset solutions, and integrated project management and consulting services. The company serves independent, integrated, and national oil companies. Halliburton Company was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
- [By Ben Levisohn]
Shares of Halliburton (HAL) and Baker Hughes (BHI) are soaring after they announced that they’d challenge the U.S. Department of Justice’s decision to block their merger. RBC’s Kurt Hallead has the details:
Shares of both companies rose ~5% following the joint press release indicating they would challenge the DoJ’s decision to oppose the pending merger.
Following numerous media reports this week that the DoJ would move to block the pending Halliburton-Baker Hughes merger, the companies today issued a joint press release vowing to contest the DoJ’s effort to stop the deal.
This confirms that the DoJ is, in fact, planning to sue to halt the pending merger. While it is extremely difficult to handicap potential outcomes at this point, it appears likely that a resolution will be delayed further. The next critical date is April 30, after which either party can choose to walk away if regulatory approval has not been obtained.
Wells Fargo’s Judson Bailey and Christopher Voie explain why they’re still bullish on Baker Hughes:
With the DOJ announcing it will block the Halliburton-Baker Hughes transaction, we believe the recent increase inHalliburton shares makes sense but believe that the risk/reward forBaker Hughes as a stand-alone entity may be more compelling with what we view as an exceptionally strong balance sheet and operational upside potential off of a depressed base.
Potential Deal Still Up In The Air. Although the DOJ is blocking the Halliburton-Baker Hughes merger, the final outcome is still uncertain as there is a decent probability, in our view, that Halliburton will contest the decision and go to court over the issue. However, even ifHalliburton pursues this course, it is also a distinct probability thatBaker Hughes elects to exercise its rights under the merger agreement to terminate the merger after April 30 and collect the $3.5B break-up fee.<
- [By Ben Levisohn]
On a great day for theVanEck Vectors Oil Services ETF (OIH) and big holdings like Schlumberger (SLB), Halliburton (HAL), and Baker Hughes (BHI), Weatherford International (WFT) is doing better than most. One reason: Barclays analystsJ. David Anderson andWilliam Thompson upgraded Weatherford to Overweight from Equal Weight. They explain why:
Top Long Term Companies For 2016: Transocean Inc.(RIG)
Transocean Ltd. provides offshore contract drilling services for oil and gas wells worldwide. It offers deepwater and harsh environment drilling, oil and gas drilling management, and drilling engineering and drilling project management services. The company also offers well and logistics services. In addition, it engages in oil and gas exploration, development, and production activities primarily in the United States offshore Louisiana and Texas, and in the United Kingdom sector of the North Sea. As of February 10, 2011, the company owned, had partial ownership interests in, and operated 138 mobile offshore drilling units, including 47 high-specification floaters, 25 midwater floaters, 9 high-specification jackups, 54 standard jackups, and 3 other rigs, as well as 1 ultra-deepwater floater and 3 high-specification jackups under construction. Transocean Ltd. was founded in 1953 and is based in Zug, Switzerland.
- [By Ben Levisohn]
RBC’s Kurt Hallead and Benjamin Owens offer their take on Transocean (RIG) appearance at the RBC Global Energy and Power Conference:
Our view: Transocvean continues to execute well, with the focus on revenue efficiency bearing fruit over the last several quarters. However, we believeTransocean shares have limited upside until the market gains more confidence in the supply/demand outlook for floating rigs in 2017-18. Currently, fundamentals continue to weaken for floating rigs, and it remains unclear where dayrates and utilization may bottom.
Expects to see 2H16 opportunities in the jackup market:Transocean expects shallow water to be the first area within the offshore market to see increased spending if oil prices remain constructive. The demand for jackups is being driven by independent oil companies and NOCs. The company still expects the deep water rig count to trend lower through at late-2016 or early-2017.
Deepwater recovery domino effect: In Transoceans view, deep water rigs currently working will remain working in a recovery. The next rigs back to work will be warm-stacked rigs, then rigs currently in the ship-yard, with rigs currently cold-stacked the last to find work. The company thinks newbuilds could cease for up to a decade during the next cycle, similar to what happened in the 1990s, with many offshore drillers opting to upgrade rigs rather than build new.
Offshore dayrates could lag in a recovery: With demand still declining, dayrates for new work are likely to remain near cash break-even to slightly higher in the near-term.Transocean thinks utilization needs to hit 80-85% before the industry starts to see pricing power for offshore rigs. The company thinks pricing could take a while to move off the bottom, even with activity increases, due to the fact that it will take the industry some time to digest the magnitude of oversupply in offshore rigs.
Evercore ISI’sJames West a
Top 5 Oil Companies To Buy For 2016: ONEOK Partners L.P.(OKS)
ONEOK Partners, L.P. engages in the gathering, processing, storage, and transportation of natural gas in the United States. The company?s Natural Gas Gathering and Processing segment gathers and processes natural gas produced from crude oil and natural gas wells located in the Mid-Continent region; and gathers natural gas in the Williston Basin, which spans portions of Montana and North Dakota, and the Powder River Basin of Wyoming. Its Natural Gas Pipelines segment primarily owns and operates regulated natural gas transmission pipelines, natural gas storage facilities, and natural gas gathering systems for non-processed gas. It also provides interstate natural gas transportation and storage services. This segment?s interstate natural gas pipeline assets transport natural gas through FERC-regulated interstate natural gas pipelines in North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico. In addition, it transports intra state natural gas through its assets in Oklahoma; and owns underground natural gas storage facilities in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas. Its Natural Gas Liquids segment gathers, fractionates, and treats natural gas liquids (NGLs), as well as stores NGL products primarily in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas. This segment owns FERC-regulated natural gas liquids gathering and distribution pipelines in Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Wyoming, and Colorado; terminal and storage facilities in Missouri, Nebraska, Iowa, and Illinois; and FERC-regulated natural gas liquids distribution and refined petroleum products pipelines in Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana that connect its Mid-Continent assets with Midwest markets, including Chicago, Illinois. ONEOK Partners GP serves as the general partner of the company. The company was formerly known as Northern Border Partners, L.P. and changed its name to ONEOK Partners, L.P. in May 2006. The company was founded in 1993 and is base d in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
- [By Garrett Cook]
Citi maintains Buy ratings on Targa Resources (NYSE: TRGP), ONEOK (NYSE: OKE) and Oneok Partners (NYSE: OKS) citing the companies stories around natural gas liquids (NGLs).
Top 5 Oil Companies To Buy For 2016: Apache Corporation(APA)
Apache Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids. The company has exploration and production interests in the Gulf of Mexico, the Gulf Coast, east Texas, the Permian basin, the Anadarko basin, and the Western Sedimentary basin of Canada; and onshore Egypt, offshore Western Australia, offshore the United Kingdom in the North Sea, and onshore Argentina, as well as on the Chilean side of the island of Tierra del Fuego. Apache Corporation sells its natural gas to local distribution companies, utilities, end-users, integrated oil and gas companies, and marketers; and crude oil to integrated oil companies, marketing and transportation companies, and refiners. As of December 31, 2009, it had total estimated proved reserves of 1,067 million barrels of crude oil, condensate, and natural gas liquids, as well as 7.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. The company was founded in 1954 and is based in Houston, Texas.
- [By Shauna O’Brien]
Oppenheimer reported on Tuesday that it has raised its rating on energy company Apache Corporation (APA).
The firm has upgraded APA from “Perform” to “Outperform,” and has given the company a $100 price target. This price target suggests a 12% increase from the stock’s current price of $87.57.
Analysts believe that the current stock price already reflects risks and the company is repurchasing shares and debt.
Apache shares were up 79 cents, or 0.91%, during Tuesday morning trading. The stock is up 12% YTD.
- [By Jon C. Ogg]
Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy by Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch. Credit Suisse also downgraded Apple to Neutral from Outperform with a $525 price target. Canaccord Genuity reiterated its Buy rating and raised its price target on Apple to $550 from $530. UBS downgraded Apple to Neutral from Buy.
- [By Wayne Duggan]
Bernstein maintains Outperform ratings on the following oil stocks:
Apache Corporation (NYSE: APA) Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: APC) Cobalt International Energy, Inc. (NYSE: CIE) Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation (NYSE: COG) ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) Devon Energy Corp (NYSE: DVN) EOG Resources Inc (NYSE: EOG) Range Resources Corp. (NYSE: RRC) Southwestern Energy Company (NYSE: SWN)
GMP analyst Bob Bakanauskas went long E&Ps back on February 3. He predicts that the oil market will transition from oversupply to undersupply in 2017. From that point forward, the world will once again require shale production growth.