Like clockwork, every time the American stock market makes new highs, some people insist it cannot go higher. A subset of those believe the market will crash. Others even believe it will reset like it did when the S&P 500 dropped from more than 1,500 in October 2007 to just above 600 in March 2009. A review of the most widely held beliefs about why a new crash is coming shows that some are bogus, while others almost certainly are likely to be right.
Here are the top ten:
1. The S&P 500 price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is too high. Right now, it stands at almost 20. Market expert Mark Hulbert recently made the point that:
… according to data compiled by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The average P/E for the S&P 500 since 1871 is 15.5 and the median P/E is 14.5.
Much analysis based on ancient history has the disadvantage of being old. Earnings have been measured differently over time, and accounting for earnings has evolved. The “S&P is too high” argument can be thrown out. Earnings definitions change too rapidly, as do the ways that public companies report them.
Top 5 High Tech Stocks To Buy For 2014: Cedar Shopping Centers Inc (CDR)
Cedar Shopping Centers, Inc., real estate investment trust, engages in the ownership, operation, development and redevelopment of supermarket-anchored community shopping centers and drug store-anchored convenience centers in the United States. As of December 31, 2007, it owned 118 properties, aggregating approximately 12.0 million square feet of gross leasable area primarily in Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Virginia, Ohio, Connecticut, New Jersey, Maryland, Michigan, and New York. Cedar Shopping has elected to be treated as a REIT for federal income tax purposes and would not be subject to federal income tax, if it distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its stockholders. The company was founded in 1984 and is based in Port Washington, New York.
- [By Bill Smith]
Lastly, because of the negative perception the entire industry has received, prices in this sector have been absolutely pummeled. ESI now trades at the lower end of all of its historical valuation bands: P/E, P/B, and P/S.
Guru ownership and avg price: ESI owned by Hussman ($76.15), Weitz ($75.32), and Greenblatt ($73.29)Over 35% of shares are short, potential short squeezeStock buyback plan: ESI reduced outstanding shares by 19% yoy at the end of the 4th quarter. They repurchased 370K shares in 3Q11.The business model is scalable; the incremental cost to educate each additional student is low, leading to high marginsESI acquired Daniel Webster College, giving them a regional accreditation which they can use to broaden their reach in online classes
High costs of education, in general, rightly or wrongly attract government intervention and could squeeze margins over time. Total student debt surpassed credit card bal ances, and sits at $1 Trillion as of the end of 2011.Subject to compliance with Dept of Education’s 90/10 rules, which states a college can’t collect more than 90% of revenue from students participating in federal loan programs.Cohort Default Rate (CDR): for-profit colleges must monitor the federal loan default rates of students who graduate or leave the school. If a school’s CDR exceeds 25% for 3 consecutive years, or 40% in any one year, its students won’t be eligible for federal financial aid.ESI competes on quality of product which is measured by graduation rates and ability to secure employment. For 2010, 70% of ESI graduates got employment in positions using skills taught in their program of study within 1 year. As of Oct 2011, this rate was 600 bp higher. The average annual salary reported by employed 2011 grads was $32K, compared to $32.4K for 2010 grads.With an improving economy, there’s a potential ESI would see declining new student enrollmentsOver 35% of shares a re short
Top 5 High Tech Stocks To Buy For 2014: Goldsearch Ltd (GSE)
Goldsearch Limited (Goldsearch) is an Australia-based minerals company. During the fiscal year ended June 30, 2012 (fiscal 2012), the Company was engaged in the exploration of gold and other minerals and investment activities. It operates in five segments: Mineral Exploration Sweden, Minerals Exploration Australia-Victoria, Minerals Exploration Australia-Other, Investments and Administration. Its other projects include the Mary Kathleen joint venture in Queensland and the Musgrave joint venture in South Australia. It held 16,000 square kilometres of tenements within the Musgrave Ranges of northwestern South Australia that were in joint venture between Goldsearch and Independence Group. During fiscal 2012, the Company held investments in Morning Star Gold NL (MCO) and Musgrave Minerals Ltd (MGV). On June 30, 2012, the Company had sold off its total investment in Independence Group NL (IGO). Its subsidiaries include: Caytale Pty Limited, Chiljill Pty Limited and Miltonpak Pty L imited. Advisors’ Opinion:
- [By Roberto Pedone]
Another environmental services player that looks ready to trigger a near-term breakout trade is GSE Holdings (GSE), which provides geosynthetic containment solutions for environmental protection and confinement applications. This stock has been hammered by the bears so far in 2013, with shares down big by 55%.
If you take a look at the chart for GSE Holdings, you’ll notice that this stock recently ripped sharply higher back above its 50-day moving average of $2.32 a share with heavy upside volume. Following that move, shares of GSE have started to trend sideways between $2.60 on the downside and $2.95 on the upside. Shares of GSE are now starting to move within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade above the upper-end of its recent range.
Traders should now look for long-biased trades in GSE if it manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $2.79 to $2.95 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 221,545 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then GSE will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $3.50 to $4 a share.
Traders can look to buy GSE off any weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop that sits right below support at $2.60 or below its 50-day moving average at $2.32 a share. One could also buy GSE off strength once it takes out those breakout levels with volume and then simply use a stop that sits a comfortable percentage from your entry point.
Top 5 High Tech Stocks To Buy For 2014: Acadia Realty Trust (AKR)
Acadia Realty Trust (the Trust), incorporated on March 04, 1993, is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Trust is focused on the ownership, acquisition, redevelopment, and management of retail properties and urban/infill mixed-use properties with a retail component located primarily in barrier-to-entry, supply constrained, densely-populated metropolitan areas in the United States along the East Coast and in Chicago. Its primary objective is to acquire and manage commercial retail properties. It operates in four segments: Core Portfolio, Opportunity Funds, Notes Receivable and Other. The Trust also has private equity investments in other retail real estate related opportunities, in which it has a minority interest. As of December 31, 2012, the Trust controlled 99% of the Operating Partnership as the sole general partner. During the year ended December 31, 2012, the Company sold 12 of the 14 self-storage properties with two properties remaining under contract.
The Company owns a 22.2% interest in an approximately one million square foot retail portfolio (the Brandywine Portfolio) located in Wilmington, Delaware, a 49% interest in a 311,000 square foot shopping center located in White Plains, New York (Crossroads) and a 50% interest in an approximately 28,000 square foot retail portfolio located in Georgetown, Washington D.C. (the Georgetown Portfolio). These investments are accounted for under the equity method. Through Mervyns I and Mervyns II, the Company invested in a consortium to acquire Mervyns, consisting of 262 stores (REALCO) and its retail operations (OPCO), from Target Corporation.
As of December 31, 2012, the Company operated 100 properties, which the Company owns or has an ownership interest in, within its Core Portfolio or within its Opportunity Funds. Its Core Portfolio consists of those properties either 100% owned by, or partially owned through joint venture interests by the Operating Partnership , or subsidiaries thereof, not including those properties ow! ned through its Opportunity Funds. These 100 properties primarily consist of urban/street retail, dense suburban neighborhood and community shopping centers and mixed-use properties with a retail component. The properties the Company operates are located primarily in barrier-to-entry, densely-populated metropolitan areas in the United States along the East Coast and in Chicago. There are 72 properties in its Core Portfolio totaling approximately 5.3 million square feet. Fund I has three remaining properties comprising approximately 0.1 million square feet. Fund II has six properties, four of which (representing 0.6 million square feet) are operating, one is under construction, and one is in the design phase. Fund III has 14 properties, nine of which (representing 1.7 million square feet) are operating and five of which are in the design phase. Fund IV has five properties, four of which are operating with one under design. The majority of its operating income is derived from rental revenues from these 100 properties, including recoveries from tenants, offset by operating and overhead expenses.
The Company’s Core Portfolio consists primarily of urban/street retail properties and neighborhood and community shopping centers located in barrier-to-entry supply constrained markets. As of December 31, 2012, there are 72 operating properties in Its Core Portfolio totaling approximately 5.3 million square feet of gross leasable area (GLA). The Core Portfolio properties are located in 12 states and the District of Columbia and primarily consist of urban/street retail, dense suburban neighborhood and community shopping centers and mixed-use properties with a retail component. Its shopping centers are predominately anchored by supermarkets or value-oriented retail. The properties are diverse in size, ranging from approximately 3,000 to 875,000 square feet and as of December 31, 2012, were, in total, 94% occupied. As of December 31, 2012, the Company owned and operated 20 properties totaling approximat! ely 2.5 m! illion square feet of GLA in its Opportunity Funds, excluding eight properties under redevelopment. In addition to shopping centers, the Opportunity Funds have invested in mixed-use properties, which generally include retail activities. The Opportunity Fund properties are located in eight states and the District of Columbia and as of December 31, 2012, were, in total, 88% occupied.
As of December 31, 2012, within its Core Portfolio and Opportunity Funds, the Company had approximately 650 leases. A majority of its rental revenues were from national retailers and consist of rents received under long-term leases. These leases generally provide for the monthly payment of fixed minimum rent and the tenants’ pro-rata share of the real estate taxes, insurance, utilities and common area maintenance of the shopping centers. During the year ended December 31, 2012, certain of its leases also provide for the payment of rent based on a percentage of a tenant’s gross sales in excess of a stipulated annual amount, either in addition to, or in place of, minimum rents. Minimum rents, percentage rents and expense reimbursements accounted for approximately 92% of its total revenues.
Three of its Core Portfolio properties and five of its Opportunity Fund properties are subject to long-term ground leases in which a third party owns and has leased the underlying land to the Company. The Company pays rent for the use of the land and is responsible for all costs and expenses associated with the building and improvements at all eight locations. During 2012, no individual property contributed in excess of 10% of its total revenues.
- [By Marc Bastow]
Retail properties real estate investment trust Acadia (AKR) raised its quarterly dividend 9.5% to 23 cents per share, payable on Jan. 15 to shareholders of record as of Dec. 15.
AKR Dividend Yield: 3.51%
Top 5 High Tech Stocks To Buy For 2014: Kyocera Corp (KYOCF)
KYOCERA CORPORATION mainly develops products for the information and communications market. The Fine Ceramic segment offers semiconductor and liquid crystal manufacturing equipment parts, and information communication parts. The Semiconductor Parts segment offers ceramic and optical communication packages. The Fine Ceramic Applied Product Related segment offers residential, industrial photovoltaic generations. The Electronic Device segment offers ceramic capacitors, tantalum capacitors. The Communication Device segment provides personal handy phone systems (PHSs). The Information Equipment segment offers monochromes and combined machine. The Others segment provides information communication services. On April 1, 2013, it transferred the liquid crystal display related business to KYOCERA Display Corporation. On October 1, 2013, it acquired a 55% stake in NEC TOPPAN CIRCUIT SOLUTIONS, INC. from Toppan Printing Co Ltd, and acquired another 45% stake from NEC Corporation. Advisors’ Opinion:
- [By MARKETWATCH]
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — Japanese stocks weakened in early Thursday trading as the yen rose and Wall Street ended mixed, with the Nikkei Stock Average (JP:NIK) falling 1.2% to 15,929.74 after a 1.9% advance a day earlier. With the yen (USDJPY) slightly firmer than in the previous session, some investors sold currency-sensitive exporters, with Fanuc Corp. (JP:6954) (FANUF) down 2%, Kyocera Corp. (JP:6971) (KYOCF) off 1.9%, and Fujitsu Ltd. (JP:6702) (FJTSY) losing 2.3%. News that China would lift a ban on some sales of videogame consoles had sent shares of Nintendo Co. (JP:7974) (NTDOF) shooting 11% higher on Wednesday, but apparent profit-taking sent the stock down 4.2% in early Thursday action. Shares of rival Sony Corp. (JP:6758) (SNE) , however, followed with a 4% rise, also possibly buoyed by a Nikkei Asian Review report that it was planning a “smartphone offensive” in the U.S. and China. Canon Inc. (JP:7751) (CAJ) fell 2% on a separate Nikkei report that the company’s 2013 operating profit would miss forecasts. Toshiba Corp. (JP:6502) (TOSYY)
- [By Daniel Inman]
Shares of Japanese real-estate companies managed to move higher in Tokyo, with Mitsui Fudosan (JP:8801) (MTSFF) up 1.6%, and Mitsubishi Estate Co. (JP:8802) (MITEF) up 1.9%. Local exporters, however, failed to lead the market lower: Honda Motor Co. (JP:7267) (HMC) lost 0.8%, and Kyocera Corp. (JP:6971) (KYOCF) fell 0.6%
Top 5 High Tech Stocks To Buy For 2014: Corinthian Colleges Inc (COCO)
Corinthian Colleges, Inc., incorporated on July 24, 1996, is a post-secondary education company in the United States and Canada. As of June 30, 2013, the Company had a student enrollment of 81,284 and operated 97 schools in 25 states, and 14 schools in the province of Ontario, Canada. It offers a variety of diploma programs and associate, bachelor’s and master’s degrees. The Company’s training program areas include healthcare, criminal justice, business, mechanical, trades, and information technology. The Company’s diploma curricula includes medical assisting, medical insurance billing and coding, massage therapy, dental assisting, pharmacy technician, medical administrative assisting, surgical technology, automotive and diesel technology, heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC), plumbing, electrical, and licensed practical nursing. Its core degree curriculum includes business administration, accounting, paralegal, criminal justice, medical assisting, and reg istered nursing.
Diploma programs are generally designed to have duration of approximately 8-12 months, depending on the course of study. Associate degree programs are generally designed to have duration of approximately 24-28 months, bachelor’s degree programs are generally designed to have duration of approximately 48 months and master’s degree programs are generally designed to have duration of approximately 21 months. As of June 30, 2013, approximately 39% of its students were enrolled in diploma programs, approximately 55% of students were enrolled in associate programs, approximately 5% of students were in bachelor’s programs and approximately 1% of students were in master’s programs.
The Company’s career services departments assist students in preparing resumes, help them to develop a professional demeanor and other soft skills that are important in the workplace, conduct practice interview sessions, and identify prospective employers for graduates. At the Company’s Everest locations in Florida, ! Phoenix, AZ, Mesa, AZ, Springfield, MO and Ontario Metro, CA, some of its associate degree programs also articulate into a bachelor’s degree in the same course of study. Master’s degrees are also offered at Everest Florida in business administration and criminal justice. As of June 30, 2013, 94 out of 111 schools were operating under the Everest brand, five schools were operating under the WyoTech brand, and 12 schools were operating under the Heald brand.
- [By Ben Levisohn]
The filing, however, hasn’t had much of an impact. Shares of ITT Educational Services have dropped just 3.4% this week but have gained 95% so far in 2013. Corinthian Colleges (COCO), on the other hand, has dropped 27% this year, while DeVry Education (DV) has gained 50% and Apollo Education (APOL) has advanced 30%.
- [By MARKETWATCH]
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — S&P Dow Jones Indices said late Friday that J.C. Penney (JCP) would be leaving the S&P 500 (SPX) upon the close of trading Nov. 29 after its market cap no longer made it suitable for the large-cap index of stocks. It will be replaced by Allegion, a soon-to-be-public spinoff of Ingersoll-Rand (IR) , which will remain in the S&P 500. J. C. Penney will replace Aéropostale Inc. (ARO) in the S&P MidCap 400, which in turn will replace Corinthian Colleges (COCO) in the S&P SmallCap 600. Even including an 18% recovery in price this month, J.C. Penney shares have dropped 55% this year, leaving it with a market cap of $2.7 billion. The lowest market cap stock on the index Friday was Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) . J.C. Penney shares fell 1% after hours.
- [By Ben Levisohn]
Allegion plc (ALLE) will replace J. C. Penney Company Inc. in the S&P 500, J. C. Penney will replace Aéropostale Inc. (ARO) in the S&P MidCap 400, and Aéropostale will replace Corinthian Colleges Inc. (COCO) in the S&P SmallCap 600 after the close of trading on Friday, November 29.