With so many things going well in the U.S. economy, those calling for a U.S. recession this year may want to simmer down.
“The US Economic team’s recession probability model assigns a 5% likelihood of a recession during the next four quarters, 19% during the next eight quarters, and 34% during the next 12 quarter,” says Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin. “An economic contraction in the near term seems remote. The consumer accounts for 69% of US GDP and confidence stands near its 20-year high. Business spending is also robust. S&P 500 capex is tracking at +24% in 1Q year/year. We forecast 2018 capex growth of 10% to $690 billion (27% of cash spending).”
The view is echoed in Corporate America, too.
Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) CEO Frank Del Rio tells TheStreet that 2018 bookings and pricing are very strong. Further, 2019 bookings and pricing are looking quite robust as well.
“I don’t see anything in our numbers [on a recession],” Del Rio says. “I don’t see it in demand, I don’t see it in pricing, and I don’t see it anywhere else in the marketplace.”