Ask any political junkie, and they’ll tell you that the 2016 presidential campaign has been one of the strangest they’ve ever experienced. The rise of billionaire/reality TV star Donald Trump and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, the wild and woolly TV debates, and how wrong the pundits have been at predicting anything has been unprecedented.
See Also: How the Presidential Election Will Affect the Stock Market
But if we set aside the drama, we may discover that the most important thing we can learn from this election has nothing to do with the candidates. Instead, the most important takeaways are how the two mega-forces of globalization and demographics have changed our country and the influence they will have for years to come. Investors would be wise to pay attention.
We’re Living In A Global Village
First let’s look at globalization. We’ve heard a lot of talk about trade, trade agreements and jobs from the candidates, but unless you’ve been personally affected, much of it seems more abstract than real. So let’s make it real.
10 Best Valued Stocks To Invest In 2016: Territorial Bancorp Inc.(TBNK)
Territorial Bancorp Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Territorial Savings Bank, a federally-chartered savings bank that provides a range of financial services to individuals, families, and businesses in Hawaii. It involves in accepting deposits from the general public and investing those deposits together with funds generated from operations and borrowings in loans and investment securities. The company?s deposit products include passbook and statement savings accounts, certificates of deposits, money market accounts, commercial and regular checking accounts, and NOW accounts. Its loan products include one-to-four-family residential mortgage loans; home equity loans and lines of credit; construction, commercial, and other non-residential real estate loans; consumer loans; and multi-family mortgage loans. The company, through its subsidiary, Territorial Financial Services, Inc., also engages in insurance agency activities. In addition, it provides various non-d eposit investments, including annuities and mutual funds through a third-party broker-dealer. As of December 31, 2010, the company operated 26 full-service branch offices in Hawaii. The company was founded in 1921 and is headquartered in Honolulu, Hawaii.
10 Best Valued Stocks To Invest In 2016: Plains All American Pipeline L.P.(PAA)
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P., through its subsidiaries, engages in the transportation, storage, terminalling, and marketing of crude oil, refined products, and liquid petroleum gas (LPG) products in the United States and Canada. The company operates in three segments: Transportation, Facilities, and Supply and Logistics. The Transportation segment transports crude oil and refined products on pipelines, gathering systems, trucks, and barges. As of December 31, 2011, this segment owned and leased 16,000 miles of active crude oil and refined products pipelines and gathering systems; 23 million barrels of above-ground tank capacity used primarily to facilitate pipeline throughput; 67 trucks and 382 trailers; and 82 transport and storage barges, and 44 transport tugs. The Facilities segment provides storage, terminalling, and throughput services for crude oil, refined products, and LPG and natural gas, as well as offers LPG fractionation and isomerization, and natural gas processing services. The Supply and Logistics segment purchases crude oil at the wellhead, and pipeline and terminal facilities; waterborne cargoes at their load port and various other locations in transit; and LPG from producers, refiners, and other marketers. This segment also resells or exchanges crude oil and LPG; and transports oil and LPG on trucks, barges, railcars, pipelines, and ocean-going vessels to various delivery points. It has 622 trucks and 731 trailers, and 2,453 railcars. The company also owns and operates natural gas storage facilities. Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
- [By Callum Turcan]
All American crude
Plains All American Pipeline (NYSE: PAA ) is also investing in Texas, and it recently snatched up some of Chesapeake’sassets in the Eagle Ford for $125 million . Plains bought 40 miles of pipelines, 15,000 barrels of existing storage capacity, 300,000 barrels of storage under construction and a truck unloadingterminal.
TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation provides securities brokerage services and related technology-based financial services to retail investors, traders, and independent registered investment advisors (RIAs) in the United States. Its products and services include tdameritrade.com Web Platform for self-directed retail investors; Trade Architect, a Web-based platform that enables active investors and traders identify opportunities and stay informed; thinkorswim, a desktop platform for traders; and TD Ameritrade Mobile, which allows on-the-go investors and traders to trade and monitor accounts from Web-enabled mobile devices. The company also offers TD Ameritrade Institutional that provides brokerage and custody services to approximately 5,000 independent RIAs and their clients; TD Ameritrade Apex, which offers various services to retail clients; Investools, a suite of investor education products and services for stock, option, fore ign exchange, futures, mutual fund, and fixed-income investors; Amerivest, an advisory service that develops portfolios of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds; AdvisorDirect, a national referral service for investors, who wish to engage the services of an independent RIA; and TD Ameritrade Corporate Services that provide self-directed brokerage services to employees of corporations. In addition, it offers various retail brokerage products and services, such as common and preferred stocks; ETFs; options; futures; foreign exchange; mutual funds; fixed income products; primary and secondary offerings of fixed income securities, closed-end funds, and preferred stocks; margin lending; cash management services; and annuities. The company provides its services primarily through the Internet, a network of retail branches, mobile trading applications, interactive voice response, and registered representatives through telephone. TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska. TD Ameritra! de Holding Corporation operates as a subsidiary of The Toronto-Dominion Bank.
- [By Matthew Smith]
Although we were not surprised by the move yesterday we did not take an overly aggressive stance in positioning the portfolio to benefit from the Fed not tapering. We were long, but we did not initiate any trades solely for the purpose to benefit from the announcement. We are more interested in the long-term wealth building of portfolios right now and as such believe that readers should look to our recent winners that had pullbacks yesterday as buying opportunities. Specifically, we like Ameritrade (AMTD), Charles Schwab (SCHW) and MetLife (MET) which all saw pullbacks ranging from 2.5% to a bit over 5.5% in yesterday’s session. We highlighted the discount brokers as a sector to watch right before the latest takeoff and our belief is that although rates remain unchanged the brokerage business will continue to perform strongly. The next big move up will be as rates rise, but even if one has to wait for this move it will be well worth it for one’s portfolio.
10 Best Valued Stocks To Invest In 2016: Cummins Inc.(CMI)
Cummins Inc. designs, manufactures, distributes, and services diesel and natural gas engines, electric power generation systems, and engine-related component products worldwide. It operates in four segments: Engine, Power Generation, Components, and Distribution. The Engine segment offers a range of diesel and natural gas powered engines under the Cummins and other customer brand names for the heavy-and medium-duty truck, bus, recreational vehicle, light-duty automotive, agricultural, construction, mining, marine, oil and gas, rail, and governmental equipment markets. This segment also provides new parts and service, as well as remanufactured parts and engines. The Power Generation segment offers power generation systems, components, and services, including diesel, natural gas, gasoline, and alternative-fuel electrical generator sets for use in recreational vehicles, commercial vehicles, recreational marine applications, and home stand-by or residential applications. This segment also provides components that make up power generation systems, such as engines, controls, alternators, transfer switches, and switchgears. The Components segment supplies filtration products, turbochargers, aftertreatment systems, intake and exhaust systems, and fuel systems for commercial diesel applications. This segment offers filtration and exhaust systems for on-and off-highway heavy-duty and mid-range equipment, as well as supplies filtration products for industrial and passenger car applications. This segment also develops after treatment and exhaust systems to help customers meet emissions standards and fuel systems. The Distribution segment provides parts and services, as well as service solutions, including maintenance contracts, engineering services, and integrated products. The company sells its products to original equipment manufacturers, distributors, and other customers. Cummins Inc. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Columbus, Indiana.
- [By Michael Flannelly]
Early on Wednesday, analysts at both UBS and BMO Capital raised their price targets and earnings estimates on diesel engines manufacturer Cummins Inc. (CMI).
The analysts at UBS raised the numbers on CMI to reflect better growth from market positions and new products. As such, they now see shares of CMI reaching $146, which suggests a 10.6% upside to the stock’s Tuesday closing price of $131.96.
At BMO Capital, the analysts raised CMI’s earnings estimates through 2015 as distribution acquisitions should add to earnings. Furthermore, the analysts rate CMI as “Outperform” and see shares reaching $146 as well.
Cummins shares were down 20 cents, or 0.15%, during pre-market trading on Wednesday. The stock is up 21.79% year-to-date.
- [By Michael Flannelly]
Diesel Engines maker Cummins Inc. (CMI) had its price target and earnings estimates raised by analysts at Jefferies on Thursday, following a positive analyst day.
The analysts rate CMI as “Hold” and now see shares reaching $130, which suggests a slight downside to the stock’s Wednesday closing price of $133.72.
Cummins shares were up 46 cents, or 0.34%, during morning trading on Thursday. The stock is up 23.51% year-to-date.
10 Best Valued Stocks To Invest In 2016: HD Supply Holdings, Inc.(HDS)
HD Supply Holdings, Inc. operates as an industrial distributor in North America. The companys Facilities Maintenance segment offers electrical and lighting items, plumbing, appliances, janitorial supplies, hardware, kitchen and bath cabinets, window coverings, textiles and guest amenities, healthcare maintenance, and water and wastewater treatment products, as well as heating, ventilating, and air conditioning products. Its Waterworks segment provides pipes, fittings, valves, hydrants, and meters for use in the construction, maintenance, and repair of water and waste-water systems, as well as fire-protection systems; and smart meters, fusible piping solutions, and engineered treatment plant products and services. The companys Power Solutions segment distributes electrical transmission and distribution products, and power plant maintenance, repair, and operations supplies and smart-grid products; and arranges materials mana gement and procurement outsourcing for the power generation and distribution industries. Its Construction & IndustrialWhite Cap segment offers tilt-up brace systems, forming and shoring systems, concrete chemicals, hand and power tools, rebar, ladders, safety and fall arrest equipment, screws and fasteners, sealants and adhesives, drainage pipes, geo-synthetics, erosion and sediment control equipment, and other engineered materials. The company also provides floorings, cabinets, countertops, and window coverings, as well as design center services; and light remodeling and construction supplies, kitchen and bath cabinets, windows, plumbing materials, electrical equipment, and other products. It serves contractors, maintenance professionals, home builders, industrial businesses, and government entities. The company was formerly known as HDS Investment Holding, Inc. and changed its name to HD Supply Holdings, Inc. in April 2013. HD Supply Holdings, Inc. is headquartered in At lanta, Georgia.
- [By Monica Gerson]
HD Supply Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: HDS) is projected to report its quarterly earnings at $0.24 per share on revenue of $1.63 billion.
JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (ADR) (NASDAQ: JASO) is estimated to report its quarterly earnings at $0.68 per share on revenue of $683.29 million.
10 Best Valued Stocks To Invest In 2016: Marathon Oil Corporation(MRO)
Marathon Oil Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates as an international energy company with operations in the United States, Canada, Africa, the Middle East, and Europe. It operates through three segments: Exploration and Production, Oil Sands Mining, and Integrated Gas. The Exploration and Production segment explores for, produces, and markets liquid hydrocarbons and natural gas. The Oil Sands Mining segment mines, extracts, and transports bitumen from oil sands deposits in Alberta, Canada; and upgrades the bitumen to produce and market synthetic crude oil and vacuum gas oil. The Integrated Gas segment markets and transports products manufactured from natural gas, such as liquified natural gas and methanol. The company was formerly known as USX Corporation and changed its name to Marathon Oil Corporation in July 2001. Marathon Oil Corporation was founded in 1887 and is based in Houston, Texas.
- [By Matt Egan]
Before Tuesday, Big Oil’s credit ratings had been left largely intact by S&P. But with oil sinking back to $30 a barrel, the ratings firm took action by downgrading Chevron (CVX), EOG Resources (EOG), Apache (APA), Devon Energy (DVN), Hess (HES), Marathon Oil (MRO), Murphy Oil (MUR), Continental Resources (CLR) and Southwestern Energy (SWN).
10 Best Valued Stocks To Invest In 2016: Pinnacle West Capital Corporation(PNW)
Pinnacle West Capital Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides retail and wholesale electric services primarily in the State of Arizona. The company involves in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity through coal, nuclear, gas and oil, and solar resources. It also offers energy-related products and services, such as energy master planning, energy use consultation and facility audits, cogeneration analysis and installation, and project management with a focus on energy efficiency and renewable energy to commercial and industrial retail customers in the western United States. In addition, the company owns minority interests in various energy-related investments and Arizona community-based ventures; and develops residential, commercial, and industrial real estate projects in Arizona, Idaho, New Mexico, and Utah. As of December 31, 2010, it owned or leased approximately 6,290 mega watts of regulated generation capacity; and serviced approximately 1.1 million customers. Pinnacle West Capital Corporation was founded in 1920 and is based in Phoenix, Arizona.
- [By Ben Levisohn]
Iron Mountain has gained 2.6% to $26.55 at 3:05 p.m., making it the fourth-best performer in the S&P 500, ahead of WPX Energy (WPX), which has gained 2.4% to $19.94, Pinnacle West Capital (PNW), which has gained 2.3% to $53.55 and Dominion Resources (D), which has risen 2.1% to $59.85.
10 Best Valued Stocks To Invest In 2016: Ctrip.com International, Ltd.(CTRP)
Ctrip.com International, Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides travel services for hotel accommodations, transportation ticketing services, packaged tours, and corporate travel management in the Peoples Republic of China. It also offers independent leisure travelers bundled packaged-tour products, including group tours, semi-group tours, and private tours or packaged tours with various transportation arrangements, such as cruise, bus, or self-driving. In addition, the company provides integrated transportation and accommodation services; various value-added services, including transportation at destinations and tickets, insurance, visa services, and tour guides; supplier management and customer relationship management services; and car rental services. Further, it offers Internet-related advertising, aviation and train insurance selling, air-ticket delivery, online check-in, and online seat selection and flight dyna mics services; and sells Property Management System, a hotel information software, as well as provides related maintenance services. Ctrip.com International, Ltd. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the Peoples Republic of China.
- [By Monica Gerson]
Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) (NASDAQ: CTRP) is estimated to post a quarterly loss at $0.09 per share on revenue of $2.81 billion.
Cheetah Mobile Inc (ADR) (NYSE: CMCM) is expected to report its quarterly earnings at $0.87 per share on revenue of $1.14 billion.
10 Best Valued Stocks To Invest In 2016: SK TELECOM ADR EACH REP 1/9 KRW500(CIT)
SK Telecom Co., Ltd. provides wireless telecommunications services using code division multiple access (CDMA) and wide-band CDMA technologies. It offers cellular voice services, such as wireless voice transmission services; and wireless global roaming services. The company also provides wireless data transmission services, such as wireless Internet access services, which allow subscribers to access online digital contents and services, as well as to send and receive text and multimedia messages. In addition, it offers broadband Internet and fixed-line telephone services, such as video-on-demand and IP TV services; and local, domestic, and international long-distance fixed-line telephone services to residential and commercial subscribers. Further, the company provides wireless entertainment-related contents and services, wireless finance-related contents and m-commerce services, and wireless news and search services; and international calling services, such as direct-dial, pre and post paid card calling services, bundled services for corporate customers, voice services using Internet protocol, Web-to-phone services, and data services. Additionally, it offers satellite digital media broadcasting services; telematics services; and fixed-line and online community portal services. The company also operates 11th Street, an online shopping mall; and T Store, an online open marketplace for mobile applications. As of March 31, 2011, SK Telecom Co. had 26 million wireless subscribers. It has strategic alliances with Bridge Alliance; Orange SA; Telecom Italia Mobile S.p.A.; T-Mobile International AG & Co; and Teliasonera Mobile Networks AB. The company was formerly known as Korea Mobile Telecommunications Co., Ltd. and changed its name to SK Telecom Co., Ltd. in March 1997. SK Telecom Co., Ltd. was founded in 1984 and is based in Seoul, South Korea.
- [By Lisa Abramowicz]
There was this maturity wall that people were terrified of, said Neil Wessan, the group head of New York-based CIT Group Inc. (CIT)s capital markets unit. Thats been spread out over a much broader period of time.
10 Best Valued Stocks To Invest In 2016: Statoil ASA(STO)
Statoil ASA, an energy company, explores for, produces, transports, refines, and markets petroleum and petroleum-derived products, and other forms of energy in Norway and internationally. The company operates through Development and Production Norway; Development and Production International; Marketing, Midstream and Processing; and Other segments. It owns exploration licenses in Norway, North America, South America and sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, Europe and Asia, and the Oceania. The company also transports, processes, manufactures, markets, and trades oil and gas commodities, such as crude, condensate, gas liquids, products, natural gas, and liquefied natural gas (LNG); markets and trades electricity and emission rights; and operates refineries, gas processing plants, LNG plant, methanol plant, and crude oil terminals. In addition, the company develops offshore wind, and carbon capture and storage projects, as well as offers other renewable energy and low-carbon energy solutions. As of December 31, 2015, it had proved reserves of 5,060 million barrels of oil equivalent. The company was formerly known as StatoilHydro ASA and changed its name to Statoil ASA in November 2009. Statoil ASA was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Stavanger, Norway.
- [By Ben Levisohn]
Should oil prices recover, we believe that deepwater drilling activity growth should lag growth in US shale activity, as project economics is generally better in US shales, and E&Ps involved in US shales are generally quicker to react. Deepwater activity is largely comprises a handful of companies (Petrobras (PBR), Statoil (STO), Total (TOT), Shell (RDS.A), BP (BP), ONGC, ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX)) and it is unlikely that these companies can meaningfully increase their rig demand in a short period of time to absorb the current oversupply. Thus, should oil prices rise in 2018, rig demand may increase, but likely not enough to tighten the market, given that supply equaling 43% of current working rig count is stacked and new supply equaling 25% of working rig count is under-construction and should be entering the market in the coming years. As a result, while we expect some improvement in rig utilization owing to rig retirements, it will unlikely be strong enough to meaningfully improve rates in 2018 above spot levels. Any demand increase in the interim could slow rig retirements materially, and be self-defeating. We thus are Sell rated on Transocean, Atwood and Noble.
- [By Cameron Swinehart]
Going forward I will be looking to add investments on my watchlist and trim other positions. It will be interesting to see how an overweight commodity portfolio will perform relative to the rest of the market.
Cost Basis# SharesCurrent Price% of PortfolioCurrent ValueReturnMetal/Miners Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS)$12.4985$11.043.75%$938.40-13.13%Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV)$7.95125$8.744.37%$1,092.509.04%FreePort-McMoran (FCX)$31.6731$33.874.20%$1,049.976.50%Ishares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (RING)$13.0695$10.644.04%$1,010.80-22.74%Energy Statoil ASA(STO)$21.7940$22.683.63%$907.203.92%Vanguard Natural Resources LLC (VNR)$27.5636$27.874.01%$1,003.321.11%ConocoPhillips (COP)$63.6822.43$71.006.37%$1,592.5310.31%Agriculture CVR Partner LP (UAN)$26.3630.9$18.932.34%$584.94-39.25%Adecoagro$6.78125$7.443.72%$930.008.87%Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM)$34.80 30$37.244.47%$1,117.206.55%Mixed Commodity Powershares DB Commodity Index (DBC)$26.3540$25.954.15%$1,038.00-1.54%Sprott Resource Corp$3.34400$2.714.34%$1,084.00-23.25% Total % of portfolio49.40% Cost Basis12,666.00 Current Value12,348.86 Return-2.50% Source: Investing For The Future Surge In Commodity Prices
Disclosure: I am long ADM, FCX, UAN, AGRO, RING, VNR, SCPZF.PK, COP, DBC, PHYS, PSLV. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. (More…)
- [By Todd Shriber, ETF Professor]
NORW reflects Norway's oil exposure. The ETF allocates nearly 28.8 percent of its weight to the energy, 870 basis points more than it devotes to its second-largest sector exposure, financial services. State-run Statoil ASA(ADR) (NYSE: STO) is NORW's largest individual holding at a weight of 15.3 percent, or 560 basis points more than NORW allocates to its second-largest holding.
- [By Ben Levisohn]
We believe that the equity market has neutralised much of its underweight energy positioning in 4Q/1Q, but was caught by the sharp rally in crude from end-January. Our base-case sees oil prices still higher by end-2016 (we see >$50/bbl), albeit with a choppy 2Q likely ahead. In this scenario a modest, rather than fully-fledged price-recovery we continue to place a lot of importance on self-help in driving ROE expansion (as opposed to relying simply on oil-leverage). Value-adjusted, we like the self-help stories around Total, Chevron, Statoil (STO), Royal Dutch Shell and Eni (E) in the group. Total is on the Citi European Focus list.