In a report call “AGpocalypse Now?,” Morgan Stanley’s Nicole DeBlase and team worry that Deere (DE) could be setting up for a repeat of 1998-1999. They explain:
Excluding the financial crisis-driven 2008-09 trough, the last Ag equipment downturn took place in 1998-99 – and examining industry fundamentals during this time reveals many parallels with the current setup. Commodity prices benefited from drought in 1996, but then yields were far better than expected during 1997-98, causing the corn price to fall below $2/bu. As such, the USDA projected a 5% Y/Y decline in farm cash receipts in 1998, followed by two subsequent years of LSD declines – the exact setup outlined by the agency for the 2014-16e period…
Applying Deere’s FY99 guidance yields a 16% Y/Y Agriculture & Turf revenue decline in FY15e…At the margin line, after accounting for structural improvement ($100m restructuring, SVA) and mix, we credit Deere with 330bps of peak-to-peak margin expansion. Similarly, if we apply 50% decrementals to an implied 30% Y/Y decline in HHP sales, we see trough A&T margins of 6.0%, well below 12.1% [Morgan Stanley estimate]. This would drive bear case EPS of $5.00. We apply a 15-16x trough multiple, for a $75-80 bear case valuation. This leaves 11% remaining downside vs. the current share price, and so we remain comfortable with our UW rating.
Hot High Tech Companies To Own For 2015: Art’s-Way Manufacturing Co. Inc.(ARTW)
Art?s-Way Manufacturing Co., Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of agricultural equipment in the United States. It offers portable and stationary animal feed processing equipment and related attachments used to mill and mix feed grains into custom animal feed rations; a crop production line that includes grain drill equipment; hay and forage equipment consisting of forage boxes, forage blowers, running gears, dump boxes, rotary rakes, finger wheel rakes, and mergers; stalk shredders; portable grain augers; manure spreaders; sugar beet harvesting equipment; land maintenance equipment; and moldboard plows, as well as provides hay blowers to original equipment manufacturers. The company also manufactures and supplies pressure steel vessels and steel containment systems for water treatment, air receivers, refineries, co-generation, chemical, petrochemical, storage tanks, agriculture, marine, refrigeration, hydro pneumatic, heavy equipmen t, pharmaceuticals, and mining industries. In addition, it provides services, such as custom CAD drawing; welding; interior linings and exterior finishing; passivation of stainless steel; hydrostatic and pneumatic testing; design, build and finishing of skids; installation of piping; and non-destructive examination and heat treating, as well as offers after-market service parts. Further, the company produces and sells modular buildings that are used for animal containment and research laboratories. Art?s-Way Manufacturing Co., Inc. sells its products through independent farm equipment dealers primarily under the Art?s-Way, Miller Pro, and Badger brand names. The company was founded in 1956 and is based in Armstrong, Iowa.
- [By Monica Gerson]
Art’s-Way Manufacturing Co (NASDAQ: ARTW) is estimated to post its quarterly earnings.
Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE: PKG) is projected to post its Q3 earnings at $0.89 per share on revenue of $831.79 million.
Hot High Tech Companies To Own For 2015: Gevo Inc (GEVO)
Gevo, Inc., incorporated in June 2005, is a renewable chemicals and advanced biofuels company. The Company is focused on the development and commercialization of alternatives to petroleum-based products. The Company operates in two segments: Gevo, Inc. Segment and Gevo Development/Agri-Energy Segment. Gevo, Inc. Segment is responsible for all research and development activities related to the future production of isobutanol, maintaining and protecting its intellectual property portfolio, developing future markets for its isobutanol and providing corporate oversight services. Its Gevo Development/Agri-Energy Segment is responsible for the production of ethanol and related products. In September 2010, the Company acquired a 22 MGPY ethanol production facility in Luverne, Minnesota that the Company intends to retrofit to produce isobutanol.
The Company’s isobutanol can also be converted by its customers into a range of hydrocarbons, which form the basis for the production of many products, including plastics, fibers, rubber and other polymers and hydrocarbon fuels, including jet and diesel fuel. Its technology platform consists of biocatalysts and a isobutanol separation unit. Together these technologies form the Gevo Integrated Fermentation Technology (GIFT). GIFT is designed to allow relatively low capital expenditure retrofits of existing ethanol facilities, enabling isobutanol production from a range of renewable feedstocks. The Company’s biocatalysts are microorganisms that have been designed to metabolize sugars to produce isobutanol.
GIFT consists of two components, biocatalysts which convert sugars derived from multiple renewable feedstocks into isobutanol through fermentation, and a separation unit which is designed to continuously separate isobutanol from water during the fermentation process. The Company developed its technology platform to be compatible with the existing approximately 20 BGPY of global operating ethanol production capacity, as estimated by the R! enewable Fuels Association (RFA).
The Company competes with Butamax Advanced Biofuels LLC (Butamax), BP p.l.c. (BP), E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company, Butalco GmbH, Cathay Industrial Biotech Ltd., METabolic EXplorer S.A., TetraVitae Bioscience, Inc., Cobalt Technologies, Inc., Green Biologics Ltd. Shell Oil Products US (Shell Oil), BP, DuPont-Danisco Cellulosic Ethanol LLC, Abengoa Bioenergy, S.A., POET, LLC, ICM, Mascoma, Range Fuels, Inbicon A/S, INEOS New Planet BioEnergy LLC, Coskata, Archer Daniels Midland Company, BlueFire Ethanol, Inc., KL Energy Corporation, ZeaChem Inc., Iogen Corporation, Qteros, Inc., and AE Biofuels, Inc.
- [By John Udovich]
As a new Government Accountability Office (GAO) report comes out about wasteful spending on biofuels, small cap renewable biofuel stock Gevo, Inc (NASDAQ: GEVO) reported earnings that came in below expectations – meaning its worth taking a closer look at the GAO report, the stock and the performance of KiOR Inc (NASDAQ: KIOR), Solazyme Inc (NASDAQ: SZYM) and Syntroleum Corp (NASDAQ: SYNM).
- [By John Udovich]
Small cap biofuel or synthetic fuel stocks Gevo, Inc (NASDAQ: GEVO), KiOR Inc (NASDAQ: KIOR), Solazyme Inc (NASDAQ: SZYM) and Syntroleum Corp (NASDAQ: SYNM) all seem to have been seeing some trading action in recent days – meaning its worth taking a closer look at all four before taking a look at their rather dismal long term performance while noting that none are yet profitable:
Hot High Tech Companies To Own For 2015: AllianceBernstein Income Fund Inc (ACG)
AllianceBernstein Income Fund Inc. (the Fund), formerly known as ACM Income Fund Inc., is a diversified closed-end management investment company. The Fund’s investment objective is to provide high current income consistent with the preservation of capital. The Fund normally invests at least 80% of its net assets in income producing securities. It normally invests at least 65% of its assets in securities issued or guaranteed by the United States Government, its agencies or instrumentalities, and repurchase agreements pertaining to the United States Government securities. It may also invest up to 35% of its assets in other fixed-income securities, including those issued by non-governmental issuers in the United States and those issued by foreign governments. The Fund may invest up to 35% of its net assets in below-investment-grade securities. In addition, the Fund may utilize other investment instruments, including options and futures, and may employ leverage. On January 26, 2007, AllianceBernstein Income Fund Inc. acquired ACM Government Opportunity Fund, Inc.
The Fund invests in sovereign debt obligations of countries that are considered emerging market countries at the time of purchase. Part of the Fund’s assets will be invested in foreign securities. AllianceBernstein Income Fund Inc.’s investment advisor is AllianceBernstein L.P. (formerly known as Alliance Capital Management L.P.).
- [By Harry Domash, Publisher, DividendDetective and Winning Investing]
For instance, AllianceBernstein Income, ticker (ACG), has about 70% of its holdings rated AAA, which is the highest rating you can get. We have some that invest in global real estate.
We have some invested in utility, preferreds, and common. We have some invested in emerging market debt. We try to cover the whole spectrum of investing. When you’re looking at monthly payers, you’re usually getting bond funds as opposed to stock funds.
Steven Halpern: Now among those closed-end funds is there a name or two that stands out that people should be looking at?
Harry Domash: Well, one that’s really good for us has been Reaves Utility Income. It holds primarily US utility and telecom stocks and it’s been a pretty good dividend raiser. The ticker is (UTG), paying about a 6.1% yield now and it’s a good serial dividend increaser so it’s a very good one.
If you’re worried about rising interest rates then Invesco Dynamic Credit Opportunities, ticker (VTA), invests in below investment-grade floating rate bank loans. In other words, these are called senior loans.
They’re bank loans that adjust their payouts based on prevailing interest rates, so if interest rates go up, these loans will pay higher dividends, so this is a good hedge if you are concerned about rising interest rates.
Another one that’s really performed, and it’s paying a 6.9% yield right now, Guggenheim Strategic Opportunities, ticker (GOF), that’s actually Claymore Guggenheim, holds corporate and government backed, that it’s mostly investment-grade and it’s paying a 10.1% yield right now, which is pretty high. Those are three that I could recommend right now.
Steven Halpern: Well, we really appreciate you joining us today and sharing your expertise. Thank you.
Harry Domash: You’re welcome.
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Hot High Tech Companies To Own For 2015: Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd(TNP)
Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides seaborne crude oil and petroleum product transportation services worldwide. The company offers marine transportation services for national and independent oil companies and refiners under long, medium, and short-term charters. As of August 16, 2011, its fleet consisted of 50 vessels comprising 59 tankers, including 2 dynamic positioning 2 (DP2) shuttle tankers under construction, and 1 liquefied natural gas carrier. The company was formerly known as MIF Limited and changed its name to Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited in July 2001. Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited was founded in 1993 and is based in Athens, Greece.
- [By Laura Brodbeck]
Earnings Expected From: Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP) Economic Releases Expected: Japanese industrial production, French GDP, Italian trade balance, Hong Kong GDP, US building permits, US housing starts
Posted-In: Federal Reserve UkraineEarnings News Guidance Previews Pre-Market Outlook Markets Trading Ideas Best of Benzinga
- [By Travis Hoium]
What: Shares of energy transporter Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited (NYSE: TNP ) jumped 17% today after the company released earnings.
- [By Rick Munarriz]
We can start with Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited (NYSE: TNP ) . Shares of the energy transporter moved 27% higher last week after surprising the market with a quarterly profit. Business isn’t great at Tsakos. Revenue dipped slightly during the period, and a profit of $0.02 a share may not turn heads. However, analysts were bracing for a loss of $0.08 a share on a sharper decline in revenue.
Hot High Tech Companies To Own For 2015: Western Asset Global Partners Income Fund Inc. (GDF)
Western Asset Global Partners Income Fund Inc. operates as a close-ended fixed income mutual fund launched and advised by Legg Mason Partners Fund Advisor, LLC. The fund is sub-advised by Western Asset Management Company. It primarily invests in the fixed income markets across the globe. The fund invests in high-yield U.S. and non-U.S. corporate debt securities and high-yield foreign sovereign debt securities. It benchmarks the performance of its portfolio against the Lehman Brothers U.S. Corporate High Yield 2% Issuer Cap Index and the JPMorgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Global Index. The fund was formerly known as Salomon Brothers Global Partners Income Fund Inc. Western Asset Global Partners Income Fund was founded in 1993 and is based in the United States.
- [By Chuck Carnevale]
Our first example looks at Vectren Corp.’s historical earnings, a utility with a 15-year historical earnings growth rate that is below our 3% threshold established in Part 1. Note that fair valuation is calculated using Graham Dodd’s Formula (GDF) deriving a fair value PE of 13.8 (slightly below, but close to our PE 15 standard). However, a normal PE of 16 has been historically applied by Mr. Market. Therefore, valuation falls between a PE of 13.8 to 16, or well within a range of normalcy.