Dr. Daniel Kahneman, winner of the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics, joins us to discuss his book Thinking, Fast and Slow.
When economists rubbed elbows with psychologists 40 years ago, assumptions were challenged. Kahneman has spent much of his career examining those assumptions to better understand the effects of human psychology on the field of economics. The full version of the interview can be seen here. A full transcript follows the video.
Morgan Housel: We’re very lucky today to have Dr. Daniel Kahneman with us. He is a psychologist from Princeton University. He’s the author of the book Thinking, Fast and Slow. He’s been called “one of the most influential psychologists since Sigmund Freud.” He won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2002. Please welcome Dr. Daniel Kahneman.
Dr. Kahneman, you won the Nobel Prize in Economics, but you’re not an economist; you’re a psychologist. From what I understand, that’s the first time that’s ever happened in that award for economics.
Hot Dow Dividend Companies To Own In Right Now: KKR Financial Holdings LLC (KFN)
KKR Financial Holdings LLC, incorporated on January 17, 2007, is a specialty finance company focused on a range of asset classes. The Company’s holdings primarily consist of below investment grade syndicated corporate loans, also known as leveraged loans, high yield debt securities, private equity, interests in joint ventures and partnerships, and working and royalty interests in oil and gas properties. It operates in three segments: Credit, Natural resources, and other. The Credit segment includes primarily below investment grade corporate debt comprised of senior secured and unsecured loans, mezzanine loans, private and public equity investments, high yield bonds, and distressed and stressed debt securities. The Natural Resources segment consists of non-operated working and overriding royalty interests in oil and natural gas properties. Natural Resources segment excludes private equity focused on the oil and gas sector. The Other segment includes all other portfolio ho ldings, including commercial real estate.
The Company’s majority of holdings consist of corporate loans and high yield debt securities held in collateralized loan obligation (CLO) transactions that are structured as on-balance sheet securitizations and are used as long term financing for its investments in corporate debt. The Company is externally managed and advised by KKR Financial Advisors LLC. The Company’s collateralized loan obligation (CLO) consist of seven CLO transactions, KKR Financial CLO 2005-1, Ltd. (CLO 2005-1), KKR Financial CLO 2005-2, Ltd. (CLO 2005-2), KKR Financial CLO 2006-1, Ltd. (CLO 2006-1), KKR Financial CLO 2007-1, Ltd. (CLO 2007-1), KKR Financial CLO 2007-A, Ltd. (CLO 2007-A), KKR Financial CLO 2011-1, Ltd. (CLO 2011-1) and KKR Financial CLO 2012-1, Ltd. (CLO 2012-1) (collectively the Cash Flow CLOs). The Company’s objective is to provide long-term value for its shareholders by generating an attractive total return through cash di stributions and increased enterprise value.
- [By Lauren Pollock]
KKR(KKR) & Co. said it reached a deal to acquire KKR Financial Holdings LLC(KFN), bringing under its roof the separate, specialty-finance company managed by the private-equity firm that pursues debt investments and other bets. KKR, known for large debt-fueled corporate takeovers, signed an agreement to take over the sister firm in a $2.6 billion all-stock deal, the New York company said. Shares of KKR Financial jumped 28% to $12.12 in premarket trading.
- [By Jake L’Ecuyer]
Equities Trading UP
KKR Financial Holdings LLC (NYSE: KFN) shot up 28.47 percent to $12.14 after the company agreed to be acquired by KKR & Co (NYSE: KKR) for $2.6 billion.
- [By Tim Melvin]
Some of the major private equity firms have developed finance companies, business development companies and REITs to provide a permanent source of capital. These entities finance some of their middle-market transactions with loans and short-term financing that produce very high yields. They also own some income-producing assets directly in partnership with their private equity parent. They are able to leverage the relationships and skill of the private equity firm into profitable deals for themselves, and the resulting income is passed along to shareholders.
KKR Financial Holdings (KFN)
Kohlberg Kravis and Roberts (KKR) is one of the best and best-known private equity firms in the world today, and it has several entities that are worth consideration by yield starved investors. One of those is KKR Financial Holdings (KFN), a finance company that invests in bonds, secured and senior loans, equities, oil and gas royalties and commercial real estate properties.
- [By Tim Melvin]
At current prices, AINV yields 9.55% and would be a good fit for most income portfolios.
KKR Financial Holdings (KFN)
KKR Financial is a subsidiary of Kohlberg Kravis and Roberts (KKR) that invests in high-yield bonds, direct lending, equity investments, oil and gas royalty interests and commercial real estate. KFN also occasionally joins KKR in private equity deals. KKR Financial is structured as a publicly traded partnership and passes most of its income to shareholders.
Hot Dow Dividend Companies To Own In Right Now: Charter Pacific Corporation Ltd (CHF)
Charter Pacific Corporation Limited is in the business of investments and the provision of corporate services. During the fiscal tear ended June 30, 2012 (fiscal 2012), the Company focused on development of its iron ore projects in Mauritania, maintained its holding in Monteray Mining Group Ltd to 30.36%, and maintained its investment in FarmWorks Australia Limited. The Company segments include corporate services, investments, share trading, and exploration and evaluation. Corporate services include provision of corporate services to other companies; Investments segment includes investment in listed and unlisted companies planned to deliver returns in through capital appreciation and/or interest on loan funds advanced. Share trading includes the purchase and sale of listed investment securities. Exploration and evaluation involves the exploration of iron ore permits. During the fiscal year ended June 30, 2012, the Company closed its Internet Protocol Television (IPTV) segment . Advisors’ Opinion:
- [By Chandan Dubey]
Hot Dow Dividend Companies To Own In Right Now: National Bank Holdings Corp (NBHC)
National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBH), incorporated in June 2009, is a bank holding company. Through Bank Midwest, N.A. (Bank Midwest), NBH’s primary business is to offer a range of traditional banking products and financial services to both its commercial and consumer customers, located in Kansas, Missouri and Colorado. The Company offers an array of lending products to cater to the customers’ needs, including, but not limited to, small business loans, equipment loans, term loans, asset-backed loans, letters of credit, commercial lines of credit, residential mortgage loans, home equity and consumer loans. It also offers traditional depository products, including commercial and consumer checking accounts, non-interest-bearing demand accounts, money market deposit accounts, savings accounts and time deposit accounts and cash management services. As of December 31, 2011, it operated a network of 103 full-service banking centers, with the majority of those banking cent ers located in the Kansas City region and Colorado. On October 21, 2011, the Company acquired selected assets and assumed selected liabilities of Community Banks of Colorado, a state chartered bank based in Greenwood Village, Colorado, from the FDIC, which included 36 full-service banking centers in Colorado and four in California.
NBH’s loan portfolio includes commercial and industrial loans, consumer loans, commercial real estate loans, residential real estate loans and agricultural loans. As of December 31, 2011, approximately 61.5% of the Company’s total portfolio was variable rate loans, approximately 38.5% of the total loan portfolio was fixed rate loans and less than 1.6% of its total loan portfolio was unsecured. As of December 31, 2011, of the loans it had originated, approximately 35.1% were variable rate loans and approximately 64.9% were fixed rate loans.
The Company originates commercial and indust rial loans and leases, including working capital loans, equi! pment loans and other commercial loans and leases. As of December 31, 2011, approximately 98.2% of its commercial and industrial loans were secured. As of December 31, 2011, it had $372.0 million in commercial and industrial loans and leases outstanding, comprising approximately 16.3% of its total loan portfolio. During the year ended December 31, 2011, it originated and closed $26.7 million of commercial and industrial loans, which was approximately 18.8% of total loans originated for portfolio investment during that period.
The Company offers a range of consumer loans, including loans to banking center customers for consumer and business purposes, to meet customer demand and to increase the yield on its loan portfolio. As of December 31, 2011, it had $74.3 million in consumer loans outstanding, comprising 3.3% of its total loan portfolio. Its real estate loans consist of commercial real estate loans and residential real estate loans. Commercial real estate loa ns (CRE) loans, consist of loans to finance the purchase of commercial real estate, loans to finance inventory and working capital that are secured by commercial real estate and construction and development loans. Its CRE loans include loans on 1-4 family construction properties, commercial properties such as office buildings, strip malls, or free standing commercial properties, multi-family and investor properties and raw land development loans.
Residential real estate loans consist of loans secured by the primary or secondary residence of the borrower. These loans consist of closed loans, which are typically amortizing over a 10 to 30 year term. It also offers open-ended home equity loans, which loans are secured by secondary financing on residential real estate. As of December 31, 2011, it had a total of $522.4 million in outstanding residential real estate loans, comprising 22.9% of its total loan portfolio. Agricultural loans consist of loans to farmers and other agricultural businesses to finance agricultural produ! ction. ! >
Source of Fund
NBH’s offers a range of deposit products to the customers, including checking accounts, savings accounts, money market accounts and other deposit accounts, including fixed-rate, fixed maturity retail time deposits ranging in terms from 30 days to five years, individual retirement accounts, and non-retail time deposits consisting of jumbo certificates greater than or equal to $100,000. As of December 31, 2011, the Company’s deposit portfolio was comprised of 13.4% non-interest bearing deposits and 55.0% time deposits. Its deposits are primarily obtained from areas surrounding its banking centers.
Financial Products and Services
In addition to traditional banking activities, the Company provides other financial services to the customers. It includes Internet banking, wire transfers, automated clearing house services, electronic bill payment, lock box services, remote deposit capture services, courier servic es, merchant processing services, cash vault, controlled disbursements, positive pay and cash management services (including account reconciliation, collections and sweep accounts).
The Company competes with UMB, Commerce, US Bank, Bank of America, Valley View, Capitol Federal, Central Bancompany, CCB Financial Corp, Enterprise Financial Services Corp, Wells Fargo, FirstBank, JPMorgan Chase, U.S. Bank, Bank of the West, KeyBank, Alpine Bank, Compass Bank, Vectra Bank, First National Bank of Colorado and Zions Bank.
- [By Shauna O’Brien]
On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs reported that it has downgraded National Bank Holdings Corp (NBHC) to “Sell.”
The firm has cut its rating on NBHC from “Neutral” to “Sell,” and has given the company a $21 price target. This price target suggests that the stock will remain flat at its current price of $20.94.
An analyst from the firm commented: “While we believe that NBHC can grow EPS longer term as it leverages its $400mn of excess capital (above 10% tier 1 leverage), with shares trading at 1.1x TBV, we see limited upside in the near-term without any strategic M&A.”
Looking ahead, the firm has maintained its FY2013 EPS estimate of 26 cents. For FY2014 and FY2015, estimates have been maintained at 57 cents and $1.88.
National Bank Holdings shares were mostly flat during pre-market trading Tuesday. The stock is up 10% YTD.
Hot Dow Dividend Companies To Own In Right Now: Five Star Quality Care Inc (FVE)
Five Star Quality Care, Inc. (Five Star), incorporated in April 2000, operates senior living communities, including independent living communities, assisted living communities and skilled nursing facilities (SNFs). As of December 31, 2011, the Company operated 245 senior living communities located in 30 states containing 27,159 living units, including 207 primarily independent and assisted living communities with 23,736 living units and 38 SNFs with 3,423 living units. The Company owns and operates 31 communities (2,954 living units), lease and operate 191 communities (20,811 living units), and manage 23 communities (3,394 living units). Its 245 senior living communities included 8,699 independent living apartments, 13,069 assisted living suites and 5,391 skilled nursing units. During the year ended December 31, 2011, the Company discontinued its operations on two SNFs owned and operated by it containing 271 living units and one assisted living community leased from Senior Housing Properties Trust (SNH) and operated by it containing 103 living units. In September 2012, it sold its pharmacy business to Omnicare, Inc. Effective December 31, 2013, Five Star transferred the operations of two rehabilitation hospitals, which included New England Rehabilitation Hospital located in Woburn and Braintree Rehabilitation Hospital located in Braintree, to entities affiliated with Reliant Hospital Partners, LLC.
As of December 31, 2011, the Company leased and operated two rehabilitation hospitals with 321 beds that provide inpatient rehabilitation services to patients at the two hospitals and at three satellite locations. In addition, it leased and operated 13 outpatient clinics affiliated with these rehabilitation hospitals. It also owns and operate five institutional pharmacies. In 2011, the Company acquired from unrelated parties seven assisted living communities containing 854 living units with one located in Arizona and the other six loc ated in Indiana, or the Indiana Communities. It also commenc! ed leasing from SNH six senior living communities containing 724 living units with one located in each of Illinois and Florida and two located in each of North Carolina and Virginia.
Independent Living Communities
Independent living communities provide privacy to residents and require residents to be capable of independence. An independent living apartment usually bundles several services as part of a regular monthly charge. In addition, services are available from staff employees on a fee for service basis. As of December 31, 2011, its business included 8,699 independent living apartments in 75 communities that it operated or managed.
Assisted Living Communities
Assisted living communities consists of one bedroom units which include private bathrooms and kitchens. Services bundled within one charge usually include three meals per day in a central dining room, daily housekeeping, laundry, medical reminders and around the cl ock availability of assistance with the activities of daily living such as dressing and bathing. Professional nursing and healthcare services are usually available at the community as requested or at regularly scheduled times. As of December 31, 2011, its business included 13,069 assisted living suites in 185 communities that it operated or managed. .
Skilled Nursing Facilities
SNFs provide nursing and healthcare services similar to those available in hospitals. A purpose built SNF includes one or two beds per room with a separate bathroom in each room and shared dining facilities. SNFs are staffed by licensed nursing professionals 24 hours per day. As of December 31, 2011, its business included 5,391 skilled nursing units in 69 communities.
Rehabilitation hospitals, which are also known as inpatient rehabilitation facilities (IRFs), provide intensive physical therapy, occupational therapy and speec h language pathology services. Patients in IRFs receive a mi! nimum of ! three hours of rehabilitation services daily. IRFs also provides radiology, laboratory, telemetry, hemodialysis and orthotics/prosthetics services. Outpatient satellite clinics are often included as part of the services offered by IRFs. As of December 31, 2011, its two rehabilitation hospitals had 321 beds available for inpatient services and provided rehabilitation services at the two hospitals and three satellite locations. In addition, it operates 13 outpatient clinics affiliated with its rehabilitation hospitals where patients discharged from hospitals can continue their therapy programs and receive amputee, brain injury, neurorehabilitation, cardio-pulmonary, orthopedic, spinal cord injury and stroke rehabilitation services.
Institutional pharmacies provide drugs at locations where patients with recurring pharmacy requirements are concentrated. The Company’s five institutional pharmacies are located in six leased comm ercial spaces and one owned commercial building containing a total of approximately 67,759 square feet plus parking areas for its employees and delivery vehicles.
- [By Laura Brodbeck]
Earnings Expected From: Five Star Quality Care, Inc. (NYSE: FVE), Maximus, Inc. (NYSE: MMS), Nustar Energy (NYSE: NS), D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE: DHI), DISH Network Corporation (NASDAQ: DISH) Economic Releases Expected: German CPI, British CPI, British PPI, US Redbook, Indian manufacturing output, Indian industrial production
- [By Keith Speights]
The sky didn’t fall, but it might have seemed like it this week for shareholders of Five Star Quality (NYSE: FVE ) . The stock dropped 21% after the operator of long-term-care facilities reported quarterly earnings.
Hot Dow Dividend Companies To Own In Right Now: Laredo Petroleum Inc (LPI)
Laredo Petroleum, Inc., formerly Laredo Petroleum Holdings, Inc., incorporated in August 12, 2011, is an independent energy company focused on the exploration, development and acquisition of oil and natural gas in the Permian and Mid-Continent regions of the United States. The Company’s activities are primarily focused in the Wolfberry and deeper horizons of the Permian Basin in West Texas and the Anadarko Granite Wash in the Texas Panhandle and Western Oklahoma, where it has assembled 134,680 net acres and 37,850 net acres, respectively, as of December 31, 2011.
The Permian Basin, located in west Texas and southeastern New Mexico, is an onshore oil and natural gas producing regions in the United States. The Company’s Permian activities are centered on the eastern side of the basin approximately 35 miles east of Midland, Texas in Glasscock, Howard, Reagan and Sterling Counties. As of December 31, 2011, it held 134,680 net acres in over 300 sections with an average working interest of 96% in wells drilled as of that date. The overall Wolfberry interval, the principal focus of its drilling activities, is an oil play that also includes a liquids-rich natural gas component. Its production/exploration fairway extends approximately 20 miles wide and 80 miles long. While exploration and drilling efforts in the southern half of its acreage block has been centered on the shallower portion of the Wolfberry (Spraberry, Dean and Wolfcamp formations) the emphasis in the northern half has been on the deeper intervals, including the Wolfcamp, Cline Shale, Strawn and Atoka formations.
As of December 31, 2011, the Company had drilled and completed approximately 600 gross vertical wells and had defined the productive limits on its acreage throughout the trend. It has expanded its drilling program to include a horizontal component targeting the Cline and Wolfcamp Shales. The Company has drilled four gros s horizontal Wolfcamp Shale wells as of December 31, 2011. A! s of December 31, 2011, it had drilled a total of 27 gross horizontal wells in the Wolfcamp and Cline formations, of which 23 are in the Cline Shale and four in the Wolfcamp Shale. It had over 5,600 total gross identified drilling locations (both vertical and horizontal) in the Permian, all of which are within the Wolfberry and Cline Shale interval during the year ended December 31, 2011.
Anadarko Granite Wash
Straddling the Texas/Oklahoma state line, its Granite Wash play extends over a large area in the western part of the Anadarko Basin. As of December 31, 2011, it held 37,850 net acres in Hemphill County, Texas and Roger Mills County, Oklahoma. The Company’s play consists of vertical and horizontal drilling opportunities targeting the liquids-rich Granite Wash formation. As of December 31, 2011, it had drilled and completed over 150 gross vertical wells. During 2011, its horizontal Granite Wash program was in the development phase. As of Decem ber 31, 2011, it had approximately 100 gross identified potential drilling locations for the horizontal Granite Wash, which included both its Texas and Oklahoma acreage.
The Company, in addition to its Permian Wolfberry and Anadarko Granite Wash plays, evaluated opportunities in three other areas within its core operating regions during 2011. The Dalhart Basin is located on the western side of the Texas Panhandle. As of December 31, 2011, the Company held 83,295 net acres in the Dalhart Basin. As of December 31, 2011, it had drilled two gross vertical wells in the Dalhart Basin. The second area is centrally located in the Central Texas Panhandle, where its operations were conducted through its joint venture with ExxonMobil as of December 31, 2011. As of December 31, 2011, it held 46,915 net acres in the Central Texas Panhandle. The third area is located in the eastern end of the Anadarko Basin, in Caddo County, Oklahoma. As of December 3 1, 2011, the Company held 33,306 net acres in the Eastern An! adarko.! > Advisors’ Opinion:
- [By Tyler Crowe]
Who’s doing it the best?
It can be pretty handy to evaluate the entire industry on how efficiently it’s replacing reserves, but reserve replacement costs can be more effective in evaluating individual companies. The lower the costs, the better it is. According to Ernst & Young, the most effective company at controlling reserve replacement costs is private company Antero Resources, with a three-year average reserve replacement cost of about $2.88 per barrel of oil equivalent. Antero, and four of the other top five companies on Ernst & Young’s list, are almost pure natural gas plays. If we’ve learned one thing over the past couple of years, it’s that oil reserves and natural gas reserves are two totally different things when it comes to value. The five following companies have more than 50% liquids on their reserves and had the lowest reserve replacement costs for 2012.
Company % Liquids in Portfolio Oil Production Replacement Rate (3 Years) Reserve Replacement Costs (3-Year Average) Per boe Rosetta Resources (NASDAQ: ROSE ) 57% 846% $6.99 Continental Resources (NYSE: CLR ) 72% 827% $12.61 Laredo Petroleum (NYSE: LPI ) 52% 1,042% $13.51 SM Energy (NYSE: SM ) 53% 392% $14.67 SandRidge Energy (NYSE: SD ) 58% 704% $14.85
Sources: Ernst & Young and S&P Capital IQ; author’s calculations.
- [By Tony Daltorio]
Other companies already drilling in the Cline include Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA), Gulfport Energy Corp. (Nasdaq: GPOR), and another pioneer in the region, Laredo Petroleum Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LPI).