Recent economic data for the US suggests that the stock market’s hissy fit this year has been a false signal for anticipating a new recession. That’s not surprisingthe short-term noise in equity prices is a constant challenge for business-cycle analysis and so it’s not uncommon that market volatility will lead us astray at times. That’s always been the case and nothing’s changed. Looking to markets in isolation of hard economic numbers is a dangerous game if real money is at stake. The challenge is finding a happy medium. The good news is that there are several choices for relatively reliable signals.
If you could only look at one measure of economic activity for monitoring recession risk the single-best indicator is the Chicago Fed’s National Indexthe three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) in particular. In the grand scheme of macro benchmarks that are publicly available for free from institutional sources, CFNAI-MA3 is a tough act to beat.
Best Prefered Companies To Buy Right Now: Nabors Industries Ltd.(NBR)
Nabors Industries Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides drilling and rig services. It offers equipment manufacturing, rig instrumentation, optimization software, and directional drilling services; and patented steering systems and rig instrumentation software systems, including ROCKIT directional drilling system that provides data collection services to oil and gas exploration and service companies, and RIGWATCH software, which monitors a rigs real-time performance and daily reporting for drilling operations. The company also manufactures and sells top drives, catwalks, wrenches, draw works, and other drilling related equipment; and offers well-site services, such as engineering, transportation and disposal, construction, maintenance, well logging, directional drilling, data collection, and other support services. As of December 31, 2015, it marketed approximately 430 rigs for land-based drilling operations in the U nited States, Canada, and approximately 20 other countries worldwide; and 42 rigs for offshore drilling operations in the United States and internationally; and 6 jackup units. The company was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.
- [By Monica Gerson]
Nabors Industries Ltd. (NYSE: NBR) is expected to post a quarterly loss at $0.33 per share on revenue of $630.85 million.
Sohu.com Inc (NASDAQ: SOHU) is projected to report a quarterly loss at $0.57 per share on revenue of $406.50 million.
Best Prefered Companies To Buy Right Now: The Blackstone Group L.P.(BX)
The Blackstone Group L.P. (Blackstone), incorporated on March 12, 2007, is a global alternative asset manager. The Company’s alternative asset management businesses include investment vehicles focused on private equity, real estate, hedge fund solutions, non-investment grade credit, secondary funds and other multi-asset class strategies. The Company’s segments include Private Equity, Real Estate, Hedge Fund Solutions and Credit.
The Company’s Private Equity segment focuses on identifying, managing and creating lasting value for its investors. Its Private Equity segment includes corporate private equity funds; tactical opportunities business, which pursues a global multi-asset class approach to investing in illiquid assets focused on timely opportunities that fall outside the Company’s other alternative fund strategies; strategic partners, which is the Company’s secondary private fund of funds business, and Blackstone Total Alternati ves Solution (BTAS), which is an investment program for eligible high net worth investors. The Company has raised approximately seven general private equity funds, as well as over three specialized corporate private equity funds focusing on energy and communications-related investments.
The Company manages various global, European and Asian focused opportunistic real estate funds, several real estate debt investment funds, a publicly traded real estate investment trust (BXMT), and core and real estate investments. Its real estate opportunity funds are diversified geographically and have made investments in lodging, office buildings, shopping centers, residential and a variety of real estate operating companies. Its debt investment funds target high yield real estate debt related investment opportunities in the public and private markets in the United States and Europe. The Company’s core and funds target stabilized office, multifamily, i ndustrial and retail assets across the world. The Company re! fers to its real estate opportunistic funds as Blackstone Real Estate Partners (BREP) funds, its real estate debt investment funds as Blackstone Real Estate Debt Strategies (BREDS) funds and its core and investment funds as Blackstone Property Partners (BPP) funds.
Hedge Fund Solutions
The Company’s Hedge Fund Solutions group comprises Blackstone Alternative Asset Management (BAAM). It manages a range of commingled funds of hedge funds and customized vehicles. BAAM’s businesses also includes investment platforms that seed new hedge fund talent, purchase ownership interests in established hedge funds, invest in special situation opportunities, create alternative solutions in regulated structures, and trade long and short public equities.
The Company’s credit segment consists of GSO Capital Partners LP (GSO). The funds the Company manages or sub-advises include senior credit-focused funds, distressed debt funds, mezzan ine funds and general credit-focused funds concentrated in the leveraged finance marketplace. GSO also manages separately managed accounts and registered investment companies, including business development companies. The Company’s vehicles have investment portfolios comprising loans and securities spread across the capital structure, including senior debt, subordinated debt, preferred stock and common equity.
- [By Ben Levisohn]
Shares ofBlackstone(BX) have gained 3.4% to $23.61 in pre-open trading after it was raised to Buy from Neutral at Merrill Lynch.
Huntsman (HUN) has gained 2.5% to $19.75 after the chemical company’s shares were raised to Buy from Hold at Jefferies.
- [By Jim Powell]
Steve Halpern: Among your recent recommendations is a housing related play called the Blackstone Group (BX), a private equity firm. Could you explain how that’s related to the housing sector?
Hot Sliver Companies For 2016: Oasis Petroleum Inc.(OAS)
Oasis Petroleum Inc., an independent exploration and production company, focuses on the acquisition and development of unconventional oil and natural gas resources in the North Dakota and Montana regions of the Williston Basin. Its principal projects are located in West Williston and East Nesson. As of December 31, 2015, the company had 484,745 net leasehold acres in the Williston Basin; and approximately 218.2 million barrels of oil equivalent of estimated net proved reserves. It sells its oil and natural gas to refiners, marketers, and other purchasers that have access to pipeline and rail facilities. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
- [By Ben Levisohn]
The $50/Bbl Question Is Answered In our June 2nd note entitled, Rethinking Risk/Reward on High Beta E&Ps, we highlighted that $50/Bbl is a critical level as it is around which many E&Ps have indicated they would begin either utilizing drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells and/or increasing activity. Thus, with the NYMEX strip exceeding ~$50/Bbl in H216 and 2017, the question becomes, What will E&Ps do next? In our note we distinguished which oilier SMID Caps could organically accelerate at current NYMEX strip prices without further leveraging the balance sheet and which would still require higher oil prices. We ranked WPX third, behindOasis Petroleum (OAS) and Whiting Petroleum (WLL) in terms of its ability to accelerate through the drill-bit while keeping the balance sheet intact. For WPX we concluded that without increasing activity beyond our base case assumptions or higher oil prices, leverage would increase by 0.8x in 2017. However with accelerated activity and corresponding higher outspend (via more Williston DUCs and an addtl Permian rig), we forecast WPX could further grow production next year and keep leverage flattish at ~3.5x Net Debt/EBITDAX. We think todays announcements confirm our thesis, as WPX increased 2016 Williston activity and issued equity to facilitate this addtl spend plus potential activity acceleration in 2017/2018 without adding more debt.
- [By Robert Rapier]
Oasis Petroleum (OAS) is a pure Bakken/Three Forks play, with 335,000 leased acres in the Williston Basin.
Oasis has only been a public company since 2010, and in addition to the $400 million raised in its initial public offering, the company has funded operations with $1.2 billion in debt.