We continue to be impressed with the movement in oil prices and the oil and natural gas E&P names. Some of this strength in recent sessions has been due to the tragic events in Egypt and Syria, but we also have to look at the positive news which has been driving traders to invest in the space and that is the improving results from new plays and the continued improvement in older plays as it relates to infrastructure, costs and production. This is a story more should be paying attention to, but the fact that they are not simply indicates to us that profits are still to be had in the space.
We came across an article of importance this morning on the pipelines and how hard it is to move production from the wellhead to market these days. Take a moment to read it (located here) as it is well worth the read.
Chart of the Day:
Gold prices are trading just below $1400/ounce, the level where one would be inclined to go bullish the precious metal. Watch the res istance and see how long it holds. We expect one of the epic bull/bear fights here.
Best Financial Stocks To Watch Right Now: Powershares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC)
PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (the Fund) and its subsidiary, DB Commodity Index Tracking Master Fund (the Master Fund), were formed as trusts. The Fund is designed to replicate positions in a commodity index.
The PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund is based on the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index – Optimum Yield Excess Return (Index). The Fund is managed by DB Commodity Services LLC.
- [By Doug Fabian]
PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) is a fund that tracks a basket of commodities, including gold, silver, Brent crude oil, RBOB gasoline, heating oil, sugar, corn, soybeans, and much more.
- [By Richard Stavros]
Another futures-based ETF is PowerShares Deutsche Bank Commodity Index (DBC). It is more diversified than DBA. It holds futures contracts in corn and wheat. But it also holds significant positions in gold, heating oil, and crude.
- [By Cameron Swinehart]
Going forward I will be looking to add investments on my watchlist and trim other positions. It will be interesting to see how an overweight commodity portfolio will perform relative to the rest of the market.
Cost Basis# SharesCurrent Price% of PortfolioCurrent ValueReturnMetal/Miners Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS)$12.4985$11.043.75%$938.40-13.13%Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV)$7.95125$8.744.37%$1,092.509.04%FreePort-McMoran (FCX)$31.6731$33.874.20%$1,049.976.50%Ishares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (RING)$13.0695$10.644.04%$1,010.80-22.74%Energy Statoil ASA(STO)$21.7940$22.683.63%$907.203.92%Vanguard Natural Resources LLC (VNR)$27.5636$27.874.01%$1,003.321.11%ConocoPhillips (COP)$63.6822.43$71.006.37%$1,592.5310.31%Agriculture CVR Partner LP (UAN)$26.3630.9$18.932.34%$584.94-39.25%Adecoagro$6.78125$7.443.72%$930.008.87%Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM)$34.80 30$37.244.47%$1,117.206.55%Mixed Commodity Powershares DB Commodity Index (DBC)$26.3540$25.954.15%$1,038.00-1.54%Sprott Resource Corp$3.34400$2.714.34%$1,084.00-23.25% Total % of portfolio49.40% Cost Basis12,666.00 Current Value12,348.86 Return-2.50% Source: Investing For The Future Surge In Commodity Prices
Disclosure: I am long ADM, FCX, UAN, AGRO, RING, VNR, SCPZF.PK, COP, DBC, PHYS, PSLV. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. (More…)
Best Financial Stocks To Watch Right Now: Trulia Inc (TRLA)
Trulia, Inc. is a real estate search engine company. The Company helps in finding homes for sale and provides real estate information. The Company is also a tool for real estate professionals to market their listings, view real estate data and promote their services. It provides local information, community insights, market data and national listings. Effective August 20, 2013, Trulia Inc acquired the entire interest of Market Leader Inc.
Trulia.com is an online real estate site focused on buyers, sellers and renters with tools to help them find the right home. The Company’s Website, www.trulia.com, is a search engine for buying and renting homes, advising homes and mortgages. The Company is headquartered in downtown San Francisco and is backed by Accel Partners and Sequoia Capital.
- [By John Udovich]
Small cap online real estate listings stock Trulia Inc (NYSE: TRLA) jumped 8.52% yesterday and has doubled since the start of the year, but insiders have been selling – meaning its time to take a closer look at the stock along with the performance of peers like Zillow Inc (NASDAQ: Z) and Move Inc (NASDAQ: MOVE). So what should outside investors do with Trulia Inc?
- [By David Trainer]
MOVE has had strong cyclical winds at its back in recent years, and the stock is up 95% year-to-date. The stock is richly valued, and several red flags hidden in the footnotes raise questions about the company’s ability to justify its stock price. MOVE operates in a niche field with significant competition from companies like Zillow (NASDAQ: Z) and Trulia (NASDAQ: TRLA), not to mention Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO), which has its own real estate listing site. Clever earnings management and the recovery in the housing market has helped propel MOVE upward this year, but don’t expect the ride to continue. The company is already lagging its competitors and continuing to lose market share.
Best Financial Stocks To Watch Right Now: Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)
Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (Hovnanian), incorporated in 1967, designs, constructs, markets, and sells single-family detached homes, attached townhomes and condominiums, mid-rise condominiums, urban infill and active adult homes in planned residential developments. The Company consists of two distinct operations: homebuilding and financial services. Its homebuilding operations consist of six segments: Northeast,including New Jersey and Pennsylvania; Mid-Atlantic, including Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, and Washington, D.C; Midwest, including Illinois, Minnesota and Ohio; Southeast, including Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina; Southwest, including Arizona and Texas, and West, including California. Its financial services operations provide mortgage loans and title services to the customers of its homebuilding operations. During fiscal year ended October 31, 2011 (fiscal 2011), the Company had delivered 4,216 homes.
As of October 31, 2011, the Company was, excluding unconsolidated joint ventures, offering homes for sale in 192 communities in 37 markets in 16 states throughout the United States. It markets and builds homes for first-time buyers, first-time and second-time move-up buyers, luxury buyers, active adult buyers and empty nesters. It offers a product range to provide housing to a range of customers. Its diverse product array includes single-family detached homes, attached townhomes and condominiums, mid-rise condominiums, urban infill and active adult homes.
The Company’s residential development activities include site planning and engineering, obtaining environmental and other regulatory approvals and constructing roads, sewer, water, and drainage facilities, recreational facilities and other amenities and marketing and selling homes. These activities are performed by its associates, together with independent architects, consultants, and contractors.
The Company sells its homes to customers who finance their purchases th! rough mortgages. It originates loans in Arizona, California, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Maryland, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia, Washington, D.C. and West Virginia.
- [By Bloomberg]
Gene J. Puskar/AP Purchases of previously owned homes in the U.S. declined in February to the lowest level since July 2012, a sign the industry may be slow to recover. Contract closings on existing properties fell 0.4 percent to a 4.6 million annual rate, matching the median projection in a Bloomberg survey, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed Thursday in Washington. Prices rose 9.1 percent from a year earlier, the group said. The slowdown in housing since the middle of last year reflects a pickup in borrowing costs, declining affordability, limited job growth and, more recently, bad weather. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said Wednesday that more household formation will allow the real-estate market to strengthen. “It may take some time to get sales back on track after the weather effect,” Tom Simons, an economist at Jefferies in New York, said before the report. “Home sales will keep growing this year though maybe not at the pace we saw last year. Rising mortgage rates are a modest negative for demand.” Estimates in the Bloomberg survey of economists ranged from 4.5 million to 4.76 million. The prior month’s pace was unrevised at 4.62 million. Stocks declined, sending equities to a second day of losses, after Yellen signaled Wednesday that interest rates may rise by the middle of next year. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index (^GSPC) dropped 0.1 percent to 1,859.18 at 10:05 a.m. in New York. Jobless Claims Another report Thursday showed the number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits held last week near the lowest level in almost four months, a sign the labor market continues to strengthen. Jobless claims increased by 5,000 to 320,000 in the week ended March 15. The median price of an existing home rose from February 2013, to $189,000, Thursday’s report showed. Sales of home priced $250,000 and less declined, while those selling for more increased. First-time buyers accounted for 2
- [By Bloomberg]
Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg via Getty Images Housing starts in the U.S. were little changed in February after declining less than previously estimated a month earlier, indicating the home-building industry is stabilizing after bad winter weather curbed construction. The 0.2 percent decrease to 907,000 homes at an annualized rate last month followed a revised 909,000 pace in January, figures from the Commerce Department in Washington showed Tuesday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey called for a 910,000 rate after a previously reported 880,000 in January. Warmer temperatures, a pickup in demand during the spring selling season and limited housing supply may help fuel further gains in new residential construction. The outlook for the industry later this year depends on whether hiring picks up enough to overcome higher mortgage rates and home prices. “We will see improvement as the year goes on and weather improves,” said David Sloan, a senior economist at 4cast in New York and the top-ranked forecaster of starts in the last two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “The pace of increase will be fairly moderate. It suggests we’re going to get respectable economic growth, but maybe not a strong acceleration.” Estimates of 82 economists surveyed by Bloomberg ranged from 792,000 to 986,000. The February pace was the slowest in four months. Another report showed consumer prices rose 0.1 percent in February for a second month, according to the Labor Department. More than half the increase was due to higher food costs. Stock-index futures held earlier gains after the figures, with the contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index maturing in June rising 0.4 percent to 1,857.4 at 8:43 a.m. in New York. Building Permits Permits filed for future projects increased 7.7 percent to a 1.02 million pace in February, the most since October and reflecting a surge in applications for apartment-building construction. One-family home-building permits
Best Financial Stocks To Watch Right Now: Impac Mortgage Holdings Inc (IMH)
Impac Mortgage Holdings, Inc. (IMH), incorporated in August 1995, operations include the mortgage and real estate fee-based business activities conducted by its subsidiaries: Integrated Real Estate Service Corporation (IRES), IMH Assets Corp. (IMH Assets) and Impac Funding Corporation (IFC). The Company’s operations include the mortgage and real estate fee-based business activities conducted by IRES and the long-term mortgage portfolio (residual interests in securitizations reflected as net trust assets and liabilities in the consolidated balance sheets. The mortgage lending activities include the origination, funding, selling and servicing of loans. The Company is focusing on originating loans eligible for sale to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and government sponsored loans eligible for Ginnie Mae securities issuance.
Mortgage and real estate services
The Company created IRES to provide solutions to the mortgage and real estate markets. IRES per forms services for investors, portfolio managers, servicers and individual borrowers, including mortgage lending services, portfolio monitoring and real estate services, surveillance and recovery services. The platform includes the mortgage lending operations, the portfolio loss mitigation and real estate services and formerly the title and escrow operations. The mortgage lending activities include the origination, funding, selling and servicing of loans. The Company is focusing on originating loans eligible for sale to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and government sponsored loans eligible for Ginnie Mae securities issuance.
In the ordinary course of business, the Company sells mortgage loans to the secondary market. The Company retains servicing on certain loans sold and earns servicing fees generally between 0.25% and 0.44% per annum of the monthly outstanding principal balance of the loans serviced. The Company has hired a n ationally recognized residential sub-servicer to sub-service! the servicing portfolio. Although the Company uses a sub-servicer to provide primary servicing and certain default servicing functions, the Company’s default management team, experienced in loss mitigation and real estate recovery, monitors and surveys the performance of the mortgage servicing portfolio. Incurring the cost of both a sub-servicer and an internal default management team reduces net servicing income, but it is an important investment used to minimize delinquencies and minimize repurchase risk. As of December 31, 2011, the total unpaid principal balance of mortgage loans serviced was $605.4 million.
Long-Term Mortgage Portfolio
The long-term mortgage portfolio consists of the residual interest in securitizations represented on the consolidated balance sheet as the difference between trust assets and trust liabilities. The long-term mortgage portfolio includes adjustable rate and fixed rate Alt-A single-family residential mortgages and commercial (primarily multifamily residential loans) mortgages that were acquired and originated by the Company. Alt-A mortgages are primarily first lien mortgages made to borrowers whose credit is within typical Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac guidelines, but have loan characteristics that make them non-conforming under those guidelines. Commercial mortgages in the long-term mortgage portfolio are adjustable rate mortgages with initial fixed interest rate periods of two-, three-, five-, seven- and 10-years that subsequently convert to adjustable rate mortgages (hybrid ARMs).
- [By Roberto Pedone]
Another stock that insiders are active in here is Impac Mortgage (IMH), which offers residential mortgage services in the U.S. Insiders are buying this stock into big time weakness, since shares are off by 27.4% so far in 2013.
Impac Mortgage has a market cap of $89 million and an enterprise value of $6.05 billion. This stock trades at a premium valuation, with a forward price-to-earnings of 124.10. This is not a cash-rich company, since the total cash position on its balance sheet is $14.15 million and its total debt is a whopping $5.98 billion.
A beneficial owner just bought 77,863 shares, or about $782,000 worth of stock, at $10 to $10.05 per share.
From a technical perspective, IMH is currently trending below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bearish. This stock has been trending sideways in a consolidation pattern for the last month, with shares moving between $9.80 on the downside and $10.90 on the upside. A high-volume move above the upper-end of its sideways trading chart pattern soon could trigger a big breakout trade for shares of IMH.
If you’re bullish on IMH, then look for long-biased trades as long as this stock is trending above some key near-term support at $9.80 and then once it breaks out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $10.50 to $10.90 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average volume of 29,759 shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then IMH will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $11.88 to $11.95. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give IMH a chance to tag $14.
Best Financial Stocks To Watch Right Now: Popular Inc.(BPOP)
Popular, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides a range of retail and commercial banking products and services primarily to corporate clients, small and middle size businesses, and retail clients in Puerto Rico and Mainland United States. It offers deposit products; commercial, consumer, and mortgage loans, as well as lease finance; and finance and advisory services. The company also offers trust and asset management, brokerage and investment banking, and insurance and reinsurance services. As of December 31, 2010, it owned and occupied approximately 94 branch premises and other facilities in Puerto Rico; and 119 offices, including 20 owned and 99 leased in New York, Illinois, New Jersey, California, Florida, and Texas. Popular, Inc. was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in San Juan, Puerto Rico.
- [By Paul Ausick]
Among multinationals, Sterne Agee recommends three banks. The first is Puerto Rico’s Popular Inc. (NASDAQ: BPOP). The mid-cap bank’s stock closed at $28.21 on Friday in a 52-week range of $20.31 to $34.34. Based on Sterne Agee’s 2014 price target of $40.00, Popular has an upside potential of nearly 42% and a 2014 EPS estimate of $2.90. The investment firm’s forward multiple is just 9.6, below the Thomson Reuters consensus multiple of 10.3. Popular received TARP funds in 2009 and could repay the loan in the first quarter of next year, which will give the stock a shot in the arm as well.
- [By Jake L’Ecuyer]
Popular (NASDAQ: BPOP) shares tumbled 5.54 percent to $27.48 after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock from Equal-weight to Underweight.
Pacific Coast Oil Trust (NYSE: ROYT) down, falling 7.13 percent to $16.70 after the company priced a public offering by Pacific Coast Energy Company LP and other selling unitholders of 13,500,000 trust units at a price of $17.10 per unit.
Best Financial Stocks To Watch Right Now: iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI)
iShares Lehman 3-7 Year Treasury Bond Fund (the Fund) seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the intermediate-term sector of the United States Treasury market as defined by the Lehman Brothers 3-7 Year U.S. Treasury Index (the Index). The Index includes all publicly issued the United States Treasury securities that have a remaining maturity of greater than or equal to three years and less than seven years, and have $250 million or more of outstanding face value. In addition, the securities must be denominated in United States dollars, and must be fixed-rate and non-convertible securities. Excluded from the Index are certain special issues, such as flower bonds, targeted investor notes, and state and local government series bonds, and coupon issues that have been stripped from assets that are already included in the Index.
The Index is a market capitalization-weighted index. The Fund invests in a representative sample of the securities in the Index, which has a similar investment profile as the Index. The Fund’s investment advisor is Barclays Global Fund Advisor.
- [By Donald van Deventer]
Shorter-duration Treasury Exchange-Traded Funds: (SHY), (SHV), (IEI), (BIL), (TUZ), (FIVZ), (DTUL), (VGSH), (DTUS), (DFVS), (DFVL), (SST), (ISTB), (TBZ).